17 Mar How did I trade today? 20210317
Summary: Grasshoppered out of a fine thesis play
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Every trading day I recap my trades, including more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I manage the trade, my emotions and cognitive function? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trader. As always, feel free to reach out to me.
My weekly goal:
- Only trade the main account
- Did well here
- Focus on time-based exits
- Fucked up here
- Don’t look at M5 chart unless within the last hour of trading window
- Fucked up here as well.
Good Pre-market routines
Good Session PECS
Good Trade selection
Good Trade sizing or SL placement
Bad Trade Execution & Mgmt.
Fair Risk Adjusted Returns
Yes Daily review
Muppet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 4
Summary
- GBPNZD
- IB: IB traded higher testing H4 QHi.
- C: Closed as a Bear Engulf, M15 Evening star with slight follow-through
- D: Short 1.93702 SL 1.94001 TP 1.93101
- Open sentiment, M30 Bear Engulf closing below H4 QHi, monitoring for IB extension down and sustained auction.
- Taking a long time for any continuation to the move. Watching like hawk for any reversal signs.
- M15 Bull Engulf with buying wick closed at ‑0.2R
- Closed trading down, trade would have been at 0.3R, H1 Bearish Inside Bar, messy M15 DBD
- E: tested DPOC and traded lower testing IB low extending 2 TPOs below then closed neutral.
- F: Formed a poor low then proceeded to take it out slightly after. Price is very slow and still has to deal with M30 VWAP in UT with LTF demand there so there might be more pushback. Looking at a low/initiative activity day. Closed below IB as DBD although bove M30 VWAP in UT.
- G: Trade would have reached 1.2R before returning and closing as a Bullish Inside bar with long buying wick
- H: Closed within IB as ThreeOutside Up with a little selling wick
- GOLD
- IB: Traded lower, B closed as an Inside Bar
- C: Closed as bear engulf with equal-long buying and selling wick just above VAH
- D: Closed as a doji with longer selling wick
- E: Closed as a Bull Engulf testing IB high
- F: Responsive Activity continued
- G: Responsive Activity continued
- H: Responsive Activity continued
GBPNZD
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
- Narrative: Open sentiment, price within H4/M30 QHi,
- Preferred: Strong Bearish price action, IB extension down with sustained auction. Low/medium initiative perhaps due to lots of LTF demands.
- Con: Larger timeframe still bullish
- 100% correct
- A moved higher with a neutral bar in B followed by a Bear Engulf in C and consequent DBD before reversing in G.
How accurate was my assessment of market context? Was I aligned with market narrative through my hypos? What were the circumstances of the developing narrative? How did they develop according to DTTZ?
I did well here that based on the open sentiment and consequent reversal through bear engulf in C that we could see some form of a mean reversion.
What was the play of the day?
A mean reversion. Trade location at H4 QHi, M30 bear engulf closing below H4 QHi in line with open sentiment there was a move lower.
Was I right on the outcome? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?
I was right on my first hypo indeed. Although price was a bit messy and slow.
Was there an opportunity and did I take it?
There was an opportunity and I did take it. Although I mismanaged the trade. I had taken a short off the C TPO closing as a bear engulf but then when price was taking what seemed forever to move lower I was looking for a reason out. This I thought came in the form of a slight M15 bull engulf with buying wick and I got out at ‑0.2R. Price proceeded lower through DBD but was testing newly formed c‑sups constantly. I was considering to get back in but thought by the amount of testing price was doing that perhaps it would reverse anyone and I would lose more than the ‑0.2R. When I realized price was indeed moving lower I did well to not act out of FOMO and enter in on a bad location risking potentially too much.
What would a price action exit rule have done?
During G there was a M5 consolidation plus bull engulf which would have netted the trade at about 1R. This same price action would have been a good entry on a reversal to go long. At time-based cut off this would have netted another 1R. I documented both into my playbook. I didn’t take the reversal as I had to deal with other things IRL.
What would time-based have done?
Time based cut-off for the mean reversion trade would have netted 0.1R only.
What could I have done better?
I could have stayed with the trade since the M15 bull engulf wasn’t that strong to begin with. I feel I was jumpy about taking the trade due to price preceding the entry in B being somewhat neutral. This combined with H4 bullish sentiment, and it being a FOMC day, I thought there could be grounds for more upside negating the bear engulf. The M15 bull engulf was also not on the hour so that is another thing I failed to take into consideration. All in all I feel I did well to take the trade and now having paid ‑0.2R for some information and confirmation on my choice and validity of my trading locations being good.
How did I feel before, during, and after the trade?
I felt jumpy at first and then quickly acted on it and cut the trade as mentioned above. Afterwards I felt good not being in the trade and I felt good not getting back in even though I was thinking about ways I could get back in. The proximity to M30 VWAP in UT also gave a subpar profit target so didn’t want to take my chance. I had my chance and I blew it. On to the next.
GOLD
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 2 — Value Acceptance
- Narrative: D1 supply, D1 VWAP in DT
- Preferred: early acceptance (coinciding with IB extension down) with quick follow-through
- Con: medium timeframe bullish sentiment.
- 80% correct
- There was no early acceptance. Instead a lot of consolidation (after extending slightly below during D) eventually forming a neutral day during H to then drop hard in I TPO rotating through value.
How accurate was my assessment of market context? Was I aligned with market narrative through my hypos? What were the circumstances of the developing narrative? How did they develop according to DTTZ?
I did well here to stay out as there was no good opportunity. Even based on hypo 1 going long would have been risky longing into supply.
What was the play of the day?
Value Acceptance. Although this came very late into the session during TPO I. and wasn’t much of an acceptance but a crazy drop rotating through in one blow.
Was I right on the outcome? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?
Hypo 2 value acceptance played out.
Was there an opportunity and did I take it?
Not based on my entry and risk parameters.
What would a price action exit rule have done?
N.A.
What would time-based have done?
N.A.
What could I have done better?
I did well here.
How did I feel before, during, and after the trade?
No trade taken.
How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
I struggled at first due to reasons mentioned earlier. Usually when I am in a good trade I don’t get jumpy too much. I didn’t like the exact circumstances but I know that my initial thesis was right. All good. Live and learn. On to the next.
What did I learn today?
That my trade locations and sentiment reading is mostly on point.
What’s one thing I need to do more often?
Stick with my initial thesis and wait for a confident exit rule. Not based on a flimsy M15 price action. If my SL gets hit it just gets hit no problem there. Following my rules is what keeps me in the game. Grasshoppered today. No sugarcoating it.
What’s one thing I need to do less often?
Worry about the outcome. If a trade is worth taking it is worth obeying exit rules just as much. I am usually good at this but somehow today I fucked up.
Under the circumstances, did I perform at my best?
I did not as mentioned above.
For my trade plan(s) on this particular day, go here:
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