How did I trade today? 20210311

11 Mar How did I trade today? 20210311

Sum­ma­ry: Mean Rever­sion Day

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Only trade the main account
  • No trades taken
• Focus on time-based exits
  • No trades taken
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window
  • Did well here

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • IB: A closed down although leav­ing behind a buy­ing wick right above the end of H4 demand. B took out H4 demand and closed down. 
  • C: Closed as a Bull Engulf although price took out H4 demand plus price closed almost on its low pre­mar­ket so there is a pos­si­bil­i­ty for more sell­ing com­ing in. A Return to Val­ue would be a bet­ter opportunity. 
  • D: D extend­ed 3 TPOs above then closed as  a spin­ning top with longer sell­ing wick. Pos­si­ble return to D1 con­sol­i­da­tion at play. M15 Inside Bar. H1 Bull­ish Inside Bar with longer sell­ing wick. 
  • E: Closed as a RBR above IB mak­ing HHs
  • F: Closed mak­ing HHs reach­ing M30 VWAP in DT 
  • G: Closed high­er look­ing to break out from M30 VWAP in DT
  • H: Closed as a Bear Engulf at M30 VWAP in DT. H4 Inside Bar with long buy­ing wick.

• GOLD
  • IB: A trad­ed high­er form­ing a M30 RBR (there was a speed­bump formed through 2 dojis then A closed break­ing up from it), inter­est­ing how Gold is at a sim­i­lar precipice as GBPNZD both almost tak­ing out H4 supply/demand as they are neg­a­tive­ly cor­re­lat­ed for about 72%. B closed as a Doji.
  • C: Closed down with­in IB as an Evening Star.
  • D: Closed extend­ing down clos­ing above M30 VWAP in UT. Entry in IB break would cur­rent­ly sit at 0.5R. Although W1 C‑dem below. Entry off IB break would have put W1 C‑dem at 1.3R. Insuf­fi­cient prof­it target.
  • E: Closed as a Bull Engulf with­in IB (at DPOC, could be weak) leav­ing a buy­ing tail although need anoth­er TPO close to con­firm. Pos­si­ble H4 Inside bar in the mak­ing for a fur­ther con­tin­u­a­tion lat­er. Will doc­u­ment for my playbook. 
  • F: Closed as an Inside Bar with long buy­ing wick. H1 Three Inside Up. 
  • G: Closed as a con­sol­i­da­tion / Three Out­side Down although weak due to long buy­ing wick.
  • H: Closed mak­ing LLs (trade would have hit 1R). M15 con­sol­i­da­tion with Break down. H4 Inside Bar. 

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment not entire­ly ful­fill­ing a mean rever­sion although if price could tra­verse low­er dur­ing IB and form bull­ish price action we could see a mean rever­sion. Price trad­ing with­in M30 QLo
  • Pre­ferred: Price tra­vers­ing low­er dur­ing IB with Bull­ish price action clos­ing above M30 QLo fol­lowed by IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auction,
  • Con: Medi­um time­frame bear­ish sentiment.
  • 90% cor­rect
  • Price took out pre­vi­ous M30 swing and old H4 demand tra­vers­ing to mean rever­sion dis­tance. Formed a Bull Engulf in C (above new­ly formed M30 Swing QLo and LTF demand) and con­tin­ued to slow­ly trade high­er through RBR. 

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket nar­ra­tive through my hypos? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

I did well here. Although with the H4 can­dle close pre­mar­ket being on its low I though a mean rever­sion would be a bit tricky to say the least. How­ev­er, price nice­ly tra­versed fur­ther down to mean rever­sion dis­tance and formed a Bull Engulf­ing and pro­ceed­ed to trade high­er. This hap­pened slight­ly before DTTZ. Plus it had tak­en out an old H4 demand lev­el and there was no oth­er sig­nif­i­cant lev­el near­by oth­er than H4 50MA in UT. Which could have aid­ed in the con­flu­ence for a short term bull­ish move. This, and the larg­er time­frames still being bull­ish until there is a close tomorrow. 

What was the play of the day?

A Mean Rever­sion play through Bull Engulf­ing in C with­in IB that pro­ceed­ed to trade high­er through RBR. An entry off M30 Bull Engulf would have net­ted 1R at the time of this writ­ing. Will check again later. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

I was almost dead on with the dif­fer­ence being that M30 swing got tak­en out and a new one was estab­lished before return­ing. I could still give myself 100% accu­ra­cy ont he hypo but I feel this is worth men­tion­ing and not­ing down. Also, it was my 2nd hypo that played out ad my 1st hypo would have been in line with the H4 can­dle clos­ing almost on its low in pre­mar­ket. So a pull­back to this can­dle fol­lowed by a con­tin­u­a­tion down would have been more like­ly also because the open sen­ti­ment wasn’t entire in favor of a mean rever­sion. This is that grey area where price could tech­ni­cal­ly go one way first to go the oth­er (in both ways). Not sure if that makes sense to the read­er but it makes hel­lalot­ta sense to me 🙂 Also price was mid H4 swing so I gath­ered a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move was more like­ly and hey… it might still come. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was an oppor­tu­ni­ty and I did not take it. I feel in these last few weeks I am for the first time objec­tive­ly see­ing mar­ket con­di­tions as if for the first time. Which is obvi­ous­ly not the case but there are nuances to the con­di­tions that I have not reg­is­tered objec­tive­ly into my brain. When I lack the under­stand­ing in these con­di­tions I pre­fer to not take a trade. As this will help me more in the long run than not. So no. I did not take a trade although I logged it into my playbook. 

What could I have done better?

I think I did great today. I hypoth­e­sized. Visu­al­ized. Tracked con­di­tions. Not­ed them for my play­book. Job well done. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trades tak­en. But I feel great thanks for asking 🙂

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GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, H4 supply
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bear­ish price action with IB exten­sion down and sus­tained auction.
  • Con: Pos­si­ble momen­tum behind the move. 
  • 90% cor­rect
  • Dur­ing IB an Evening Star was formed that saw a con­tin­u­a­tion dur­ing C extend­ing and clos­ing below IB just above M30 VWAP in UT (coin­cid­ing with LTF demand). Fol­lowed by a Bull ENgulf­ing in D and then some consolidation. 

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket nar­ra­tive through my hypos? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

Here too I did well. I gath­ered that there might be a kic­cup to the mean rever­sion trade due to the H4 phase 2 clos­ing with­in sup­ply we could poten­tial­ly see an Inside Bar made. This is still my believe although will do my Next Day Analy­sis tomor­row. This is where I have the entire infor­ma­tion of the day to put the Lon­don ses­sion into the per­spec­tive of the entire day’s trad­ing. Fur­ther­more I do not like trad­ing into VWAP espe­cial­ly when it is in an up/down trend and price has not yet bro­ken down/up. M30 VWAp proved reac­tive and cre­at­ed a Bull ENgulf although so far no fol­low-through to the price formation.

What was the play of the day?

Mean Rever­sion although on for­ma­tion of the M30 Evening Star the trade would have net­ted 0.8R at its max before trad­ing around entry lev­el ie. IB edge low in this case. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

For gold it was indeed hypo 1 that played out as Mean Rever­sion cri­te­ria were already well in place at the open. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

I did not take the oppor­tu­ni­ty for rea­sons out­lined above. To sum up: H4 Phase 2, M30 VWAP in DT in the way to a good 2+R prof­it tar­get. Per­haps I could have tak­en a LTF entry but it wasn’t the clean­est either but added it to my playbook. 

What could I have done better?

I told you to leave me alone okay. I did well today! 🙂

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trades tak­en but I feel great. 

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

Did real­ly well here. Focused. Observing. 

What did I learn today?

That prive can tra­verse to mean rever­sion lev­els (after the open) and still form a rever­sal. Also, intrigued with the cor­re­la­tion in price moment with XAUUSD. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Be open to new infor­ma­tion. Con­firm my knowl­edge so far. Test out what I am unclear on. Learn. And exe­cute when confident. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

I did well today so again.. Back off. 🙂

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

Very well. 

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For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210311

Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210311

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