How did I trade today? 20210310

10 Mar How did I trade today? 20210310

Sum­ma­ry: Updat­ed DRC for­mat — Made mon­ey being a Muppet

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Only trade the main account
  • Did well
• Focus on time-based exits
  • Did not due to an open with­in mar­ket being more prone to respon­sive activity
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window
  • Did not due to an open with­in mar­ket being more prone to respon­sive activity

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Bad Trade selection

Bad Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Bad Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 4

Summary

• GBPNZD
  • IB: A closed well above VAH, B pulled back and closed as a Bear­ish Inside Bar clos­ing below M30 QHi
    • Poten­tial­ly Hypo 1 in effect
  • C: Did not take a short on B bounc­ing off LTF sup­ply and M30 QHi as I hes­i­tat­ed due to A clos­ing above VAH. Although due to not coin­cid­ing with an IB exten­sion I believe the rejec­tion is not valid and thus there was more empha­sis on a bal­anc­ing mar­ket and thus I could have gone short on the reversal. 
    • Closed on IB low
  • D: Extend­ed below 3 TPO saw M5 price fal­ter­ing above H4 C‑dem (at M5 QLo) clos­ing with a Bull Engulf and went long 1.94025, SL (15 pips) 1.93875 TP (2R)1.94326
    • D closed as an Inside Bar with­in IB after extend­ing below 3 TPOs although due to respon­sive activ­i­ty did not assume a momen­tum play down. I took the trade off at 0.5R due to near­by H4 C‑sup and the ini­tial exten­sion below I kin­da got stressed to take profits. 
  • E: Closed as an con­sol­i­da­tion after print­ing 1 TPO below IB, M15 Evening star with longer buy­ing wick, H1 Inside bar with long buy­ing wick
  • F: M30 RBR with longer buy­ing wick
  • G: Bear Engulf
  • H: Made LLs

• GOLD
  • IB: A closed down not tak­ing out LTF demand, B retraced all of A and closed as a Bull­ish Inside Bar (neg­a­tive­ly cor­re­lat­ed to GBPNZD)
  • C: Closed as an Inside Bar with no IB exten­sion (yet)
  • D: Closed as consolidation
  • E: Closed test­ing IB high
  • F: Big Bear Engulf
  • G: Con­tin­u­a­tion extend­ing IB to the down­side near­ing new D1 C‑dem
  • H: Bull Engulf

GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open with­in val­ue, pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 / 3
  • Pre­ferred: Play off near­by LTF SD and ADR levels
  • 100% cor­rect
  • A closed well above VAH but due to still being respon­sive activ­i­ty this can­not be con­sid­ered a rejec­tion. B closed as a Bear­ish Inside Bar and C took it fur­ther down after which D made a slight exten­sion below (3 TPOs). Fol­lowed was a con­sol­i­da­tion and then fur­ther exten­sion in H. 

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket nar­ra­tive through my hypos? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

When I saw A clos­ing above VAH I knew that a true val­ue rejec­tion needs to coin­cide with an IB exten­sion. Obvi­ous­ly in A this was not the case. I wait­ed to see how price would devel­op fur­ther as I thought per­haps B would make a pull­back and C would take it high­er. B indeed pulled back and LTF showed signs of a rever­sal. I failed to cap­i­tal­ize on this as I lacked the con­fi­dence in this par­tic­u­lar play. But I quick­ly found out I was right. Then when price reached H4 demand and LTF showed price fal­ter­ing with a bull engulf I went long (also this was near­ing the right time of day for a poten­tial rever­sal). The rea­son I was look­ing at M5 even though it is one of my main focus points is that with an open with val­ue we can see lots of respon­sive activ­i­ty and poten­tial ear­ly entries on the M5. I went long and wait­ed for a move up that would tran­si­tion into M15 then M30. I wait­ed but when price failed to close strong­ly I got stressed to take some prof­its which I did. I thought I can always see if my the­sis was right and if should have stayed in. Turns out… I was com­plete wrong to take the trade. This is one of those moments where mak­ing a mis­take made me some prof­its which is the worst thing to have. I should have gath­ered from the 3 TPO exten­sion below as well as price (even­tu­al­ly) con­sol­i­dat­ing at the bot­tom of IB that the high­er like­li­hood was for a con­tin­ued move down. Les­son learned. 

What was the play of the day?

Ear­ly ‘fake’ rejec­tion of val­ue into ADR 0.5 high, H4 C‑sup, LTF sup­ply dur­ing A, B con­se­quent­ly clos­ing as a Bear­ish Inside Bar. LTF pro­vid­ed with good entries here which could have eas­i­ly net­ted 1.5+R over 3R and 4R if wait­ed for a time-based exit which is one of my goals. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

It was Hypo 1 although I failed to cap­i­tal­ize on the oppor­tu­ni­ty. I have ampel notes and a record­ing to watch back on what I could have done better. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

I failed to take the actu­al oppor­tu­ni­ty and then made the sil­ly mis­take to take a counter move. Super risky as it was off a M5 QLo after reject­ing a M30 QHi and being mid swing plus fail­ing a val­ue rejec­tion. Mup­pet moment. 

What could I have done better?

I did well to stay objec­tive and deduce that even though A closed above val­ue we could see the con­flu­ence with an IB exten­sion. And thus I switched to a pos­si­ble rever­sal although I failed to cap­i­tal­ize on it as I lacked the con­fi­dence. I feel I am solid­i­fy­ing a lot of the learn­ing mate­r­i­al from Dee more objec­tive­ly in real-time as we go along (which is what I am sup­posed to do). Though I don’t always take the oppor­tu­ni­ty. This will come with more con­fi­dence I’m sure. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

I felt good to have tak­en the trade. That I am not gun shy after 3 times my SL get­ting tak­en out. Then when I was in the trade I was visu­al­iz­ing what I want­ed to see so that was good. When I real­ized the H4 c‑sup could cause prob­lems as price was fail­ing to close above I just cut the trade with­out much of an exit rule. In hind­sight this paid out although I com­plete­ly vio­lat­ed my exit rules. 

GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Bull Engulf and open above sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Test of VAH with Bull­ish price con­fir­ma­tion, per­haps a failed auc­tion even oth­er­wise an IB exten­sion up but a sus­tained auc­tion might be trou­ble­some due to over­head sup­ply. Thus a H4 con­sol­i­da­tion might be form­ing and thus we could pos­si­bly trade swing high and low. In this case low. 
  • Con: Larg­er time­frame bear­ish sentiment
  • 100% cor­rect
  • Although tech­ni­cal­ly true I think the real ‘play’ was the afore­men­tioned hypoth­e­sized H4 con­sol­i­da­tion. Due to new­ly formed D1 C‑dem and H4 sup­ply as well as H4 50MA in DT I did not see price mov­ing much in any way. Indeed price trad­ed with­in IB until G extend­ed below against D1 C‑dem and VAH only to be pushed high­er again.

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket nar­ra­tive through my hypos? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

Pre­mar­ket closed as a pos­si­ble H4 DBD even though a big Inside Bar was formed and thus at the open there was an influx of sell­ers com­ing in. This could have been a poten­tial quick scalp as I have wit­nessed this before. The next DTTZ there was not much going on. Instead the price just did noth­ing for the most of the ses­sion until form­ing a Bear Engulf in F and extend­ing below IB in G then quick­ly reversing. 

What was the play of the day?

Rever­sal dur­ing H for a quick scalp. M5 Bull Engulf at VAH and D1 C‑dem, then visu­al­iz­ing a tran­si­tion into M15 and M30. An ear­ly entry would have yield­ed 2R on 20 pip SL.

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Yes. I gath­ered that through hav­ing formed the new D1 C‑dem and over­head H4 sup­ply we could actu­al­ly just see some con­sol­i­dat­ing price action. Mar­ket had opened above val­ue again indi­cat­ing a poten­tial shift in sen­ti­ment around these lev­els as larg­er time­frame price action has hit demand levels. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

I did not take the oppor­tu­ni­ty as I had already tak­en one on GBPNZD and decid­ed to go to the gym.

What could I have done better?

I guess I could have stayed and per­haps I could have tak­en that Gold trade but come on… I made a choice and stick­ing with it. I need­ed a good work out. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trades taken

How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I did well today to stay objec­tive for the most part even though I took the wrong trade I believe in the moment I was right. Right­ful­ly wrong in hind­sight but then again hind­sight is 20/20 as they say. I gath­ered that there could be more respon­sive activ­i­ty and due to a H4 c‑dem we could see a reac­tion which we did. There was sad­ly no con­tin­u­a­tion to it. 

What did I learn today?

That when price trades for a long time build­ing struc­ture at an IB edge it is more like­ly to extend fur­ther in that direc­tion. With­in val­ue or not. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Come up with hypos accord­ing to my week­ly plan. Then not be scared to take trades based on devel­op­ing price to con­firm that hypo (or negate). There is no way to learn by sit­ting on the side lines. I have to get involved (tak­ing cal­cu­lat­ed risks) so that I can learn from my mistakes. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

Go against the pro­file as out­lined earlier. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I could have done bet­ter. I was feel­ing okay not hav­ing tak­ing that first (real) oppor­tu­ni­ty and then I thought I was tak­ing a good one which it turned out it wasn’t. Fuck it. #NEXT!

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210310

Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210310

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