08 Mar How did I trade today? 20210308
Summary: Still learning
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Every trading day I recap my trades, including more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I manage the trade, my emotions and cognitive function? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trader. As always, feel free to reach out to me.
My weekly goal:
- Only trade the main fund
Good Pre-market routines
Good Session PECS
Bad Trade selection
Bad Trade sizing or SL placement
Good Trade Execution & Mgmt.
Good Risk Adjusted Returns
Yes Daily review
Muppet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 3
Summary
- GBPNZD
- IB: traded higher although not rejecting value, gravestone doji formed at VAH testing a rejection but no close above (yet)
- 2x M15 Gravestone dojis formed Below H4-C‑S 1.94100
- C: Closed extending above IB exhausting ADR. I don’t feel comfortable buying the highs here even though an exhaustion is suggesting a continuation to the move. I might try and get involved at a test of IB high (if any). Didn’t get involved earlier as there was no rejection confirmed and the gravestone doji at VAH suggested a possible reversal and Hypo 1 in play.
- D: Closed making HHs in what looks like a sustained auction
- E: Closed as a Bearish Inside bar although due to ADR exhaustion and no TPO structure build up we could see a further continuation higher thus shorting is risky. Perhaps in case of a single print fade although not much of a selling tail in D.
- F: Decided the bearish sentiment is not valid and looked for entry long. When we had a M5 Bull Engulf at VWAP in UT (which I was testing as an entry before coinciding with IB edge high) I decided to go in. In line with larger timeframe bullish sentiment as well as exhausting ADR.
- Long 1.94475 SL 1.94220 TP 1.94992
- Closed as a Bull Engulf
- G: Waited slightly longer but LTF showed reversing. Waited for a significant close however by then my SL got taken out. ‑1R
- Price reversed and after a M30 consolidation and M15 bear engulf started taking out single prints in C so went short for a quick scalp to IB edge high. 3 TPO structure making the 4th.
- Closed as a Bear Engulf with a slight buying wick not entirely clearing out the single prints. Will stay with the trade a bit longer although LTF not looking good I am deciding that M30 will trump and stick with it for a bit longer.
- H: Price reversed and took out my SL ‑1R and closed as an Inside Bar with longer selling wick, H4 closed within overhead supply nearing D1 supply end
- IB: traded higher although not rejecting value, gravestone doji formed at VAH testing a rejection but no close above (yet)
- GOLD
- IB: Closed trading down accepting value and taking out LTF demand that was within followed by a quick rotation and LTF reversal at D1-C‑D 1693. B closed as a Dragonfly Doji
- C: Closed extending down after rotation
- D: Closed as an Inside Bar with longer selling wick, no LLs
- E: Closed as M30 Three Inside Up closing within IB
- F: Closed as a Gravestone Doji
- G: Closed as an Evening Star
- H: Made LLs closing down
Hypos
GBPNZD
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 2 — Value Rejection Up
- Narrative: Larger timeframe bullish sentiment. Weaker supply overhead. H4 Break higher.
- Preferred: Early confident rejection coinciding with IB extension followed by a sustained auction.
- Con: Potentially low/medium initiative activity day due to overhead supply
- 100% correct
- Price extended and closed above Value rejecting it in C exhausting ADR followed by HHs in D. What followed was a consolidation and Bear Engulf in G.
GOLD
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 1 — Value Acceptance
- Narrative: Open sentiment plus larger timeframe bearish sentiment.
- Preferred: Quick acceptance and rotation
- Con: LTF demand right at PPOC plus very tight value.
- 100% correct
- Price accepted value early in A followed by a quick rotation in B then extending below VAL in C followed by a Three Inside Up closing within IB failing auction. However G formed an Evening star and continued LL and H took out H4 demand.
Process
How well did I follow my process?
- How accurate was my assessment of market context? Was I aligned with market narrative through my hypos?
- GBPNZD: With the larger time frame bullish sentiment I feel I did well to hypothesize a value rejection up. There was sadly no way (under current rules) to get in long as there was no value rejection and when there was price had moved away from value edge quite a bit.
- Gold: I did well to hypothesize
- Was I right on the outcome?
- GBPNZD: yes I was although I failed to capitalize on it.
- Gold: Yes I was although being focused on GBPNZD I did not take advantage of any opportunities
- Was there an opportunity and did I take it?
- GBPNZD:
- T1: When I saw the move had already happened and also exhausted ADR I went with the more probable likelihood of a continuation to the move. I have observed price often obeying M5 VWAP in UT as a way to get in on a late-sustained auction entry which is what I did. However usually this coincides with a test of IB edge. When this happened higher than the IB edge I surmised thinking there was momentum behind the move as we did leave single prints behind in C. When price reversed I was looking for an exit but when M15 closed as a Bull Engulf with slight continuation closing as a M30 bull engulf I thought I’d give it some more time. Price quickly reversed and took out my SL.
- T2: After having been stopped out I watched for possible signs of a reversal. There was a 3 TPO structure build withM30 consolidation although no finisher (yet) but when G started taking out Single prints in C I thought to take a single print fade short looking for IB edge as profit target.
- Gold: No trades taken
- GBPNZD:
- What could I have done better?
- GBPNZD:
- T1: on the first trade I feel the premise was valid and I took a chance on an experimental trade. I believe that being around D1 levels makes price behave somewhat different so will take a sidenote of this. Or perhaps stick with having the M5 entry coincide with a test of IB edge. Obvious that I need to collect more data on this. Will review my previous notes.
- T2: The selling tail in D was only 2 TPOs which is not strong at all. Thought I could get a quick opportunistic scalp in but sadly price reversed and took out my SL again. Plus there was no reversal completed on M30 although the consolidation was enough in my opinion.
- I should have also recalculated the correct percentage in FX synergy which I neglected to do so sizing was somewhat off.
- GBPNZD:
- How did I feel before, during, and after the trade?
- GBPNZD: I felt slightly jumpy during the first trade towards the end but that was only because I felt less confident about the trade. On the second one I felt much better as price had moved in my favor a bit before yet again reversing.
How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- I did well today even though I was a bit tired earlier. I did not get angry or whatever and still feel very much calm. I learned some good lessons today to solidify more of my knowledge in these settings. Documented the trades into my playbook.
What did I learn today?
- Don’t go against the trend when ADR is exhausted unless there is more of a confluence for a reversal ie. selling tail confident reversal pattern, 4+ TPO structure build up, single print fade.
What’s one thing I need to do more often?
- Take chances and validate my ability through taking calculated opportunities. False or wrong. It is okay to make mistakes as long as you learn from them. No other way to make mistakes by taking trades.
What’s one thing I need to do less often?
- Worry about making money. I am here to prove that I can trade a bigger account by following my rules. Worry about not following rules. If you follow the rules and you lose money that is more than okay. Look for what you can do better instead of looking ways to make money. Process is king.
Under the circumstances, did I perform at my best?
- I did pretty well to change my bias and quickly go short based on something that I saw developing. Albeit that it wasn’t enough and now I know that I should have looked for more confluence before going against the move. Live and learn.
For my trade plan(s) on this particular day, go here:
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