How did I trade today? 20210308

08 Mar How did I trade today? 20210308

Sum­ma­ry: Still learning

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Only trade the main fund

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Bad Trade selection

Bad Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 3

Summary

• GBPNZD
  • IB: trad­ed high­er although not reject­ing val­ue, grave­stone doji formed at VAH test­ing a rejec­tion but no close above (yet)
    • 2x M15 Grave­stone dojis formed Below H4-C‑S 1.94100
  • C: Closed extend­ing above IB exhaust­ing ADR. I don’t feel com­fort­able buy­ing the highs here even though an exhaus­tion is sug­gest­ing a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move. I might try and get involved at a test of IB high (if any). Didn’t get involved ear­li­er as there was no rejec­tion con­firmed and the grave­stone doji at VAH sug­gest­ed a pos­si­ble rever­sal and Hypo 1 in play. 
  • D: Closed mak­ing HHs in what looks like a sus­tained auction
  • E: Closed as a Bear­ish Inside bar although due to ADR exhaus­tion and no TPO struc­ture build up we could see a fur­ther con­tin­u­a­tion high­er thus short­ing is risky. Per­haps in case of a sin­gle print fade although not much of a sell­ing tail in D.
  • F: Decid­ed the bear­ish sen­ti­ment is not valid and looked for entry long. When we had a M5 Bull Engulf at VWAP in UT (which I was test­ing as an entry before coin­cid­ing with IB edge high) I decid­ed to go in. In line with larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment as well as exhaust­ing ADR. 
    • Long 1.94475 SL 1.94220 TP 1.94992
    • Closed as a Bull Engulf
  • G: Wait­ed slight­ly longer but LTF showed revers­ing. Wait­ed for a sig­nif­i­cant close how­ev­er by then my SL got tak­en out. ‑1R
    • Price reversed and after a M30 con­sol­i­da­tion and M15 bear engulf start­ed tak­ing out sin­gle prints in C so went short for a quick scalp to IB edge high. 3 TPO struc­ture mak­ing the 4th.
    • Closed as a Bear Engulf with a slight buy­ing wick not entire­ly clear­ing out the sin­gle prints. Will stay with the trade a bit longer although LTF not look­ing good I am decid­ing that M30 will trump and stick with it for a bit longer. 
  • H: Price reversed and took out my SL ‑1R and closed as an Inside Bar with longer sell­ing wick, H4 closed with­in over­head sup­ply near­ing D1 sup­ply end

• GOLD
  • IB: Closed trad­ing down accept­ing val­ue and tak­ing out LTF demand that was with­in fol­lowed by a quick rota­tion and LTF rever­sal at D1-C‑D 1693. B closed as a Drag­on­fly Doji
  • C: Closed extend­ing down after rotation 
  • D: Closed as an Inside Bar with longer sell­ing wick, no LLs
  • E: Closed as M30 Three Inside Up clos­ing with­in IB
  • F: Closed as a Grave­stone Doji
  • G: Closed as an Evening Star
  • H: Made LLs clos­ing down

Hypos

GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment. Weak­er sup­ply over­head. H4 Break higher. 
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly con­fi­dent rejec­tion coin­cid­ing with IB exten­sion fol­lowed by a sus­tained auction. 
  • Con: Poten­tial­ly low/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day due to over­head supply
  • 100% cor­rect
  • Price extend­ed and closed above Val­ue reject­ing it in C exhaust­ing ADR fol­lowed by HHs in D. What fol­lowed was a con­sol­i­da­tion and Bear Engulf in G.

GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment plus larg­er time­frame bear­ish sentiment. 
  • Pre­ferred: Quick accep­tance and rotation
  • Con: LTF demand right at PPOC plus very tight value. 
  • 100% cor­rect
  • Price accept­ed val­ue ear­ly in A fol­lowed by a quick rota­tion in B then extend­ing below VAL in C fol­lowed by a Three Inside Up clos­ing with­in IB fail­ing auc­tion. How­ev­er G formed an Evening star and con­tin­ued LL and H took out H4 demand. 

Process

How well did I fol­low my process?

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket nar­ra­tive through my hypos?
  • GBPNZD: With the larg­er time frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment I feel I did well to hypoth­e­size a val­ue rejec­tion up. There was sad­ly no way (under cur­rent rules) to get in long as there was no val­ue rejec­tion and when there was price had moved away from val­ue edge quite a bit. 
  • Gold: I did well to hypothesize
• Was I right on the outcome?
  • GBPNZD: yes I was although I failed to cap­i­tal­ize on it. 
  • Gold: Yes I was although being focused on GBPNZD I did not take advan­tage of any opportunities 
• Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?
  • GBPNZD: 
    • T1: When I saw the move had already hap­pened and also exhaust­ed ADR I went with the more prob­a­ble like­li­hood of a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move. I have observed price often obey­ing M5 VWAP in UT as a way to get in on a late-sus­tained auc­tion entry which is what I did. How­ev­er usu­al­ly this coin­cides with a test of IB edge. When this hap­pened high­er than the IB edge I sur­mised think­ing there was momen­tum behind the move as we did leave sin­gle prints behind in C. When price reversed I was look­ing for an exit but when M15 closed as a Bull Engulf with slight con­tin­u­a­tion clos­ing as a M30 bull engulf I thought I’d give it some more time. Price quick­ly reversed and took out my SL.
    • T2: After hav­ing been stopped out I watched for pos­si­ble signs of a rever­sal. There was a 3 TPO struc­ture build withM30 con­sol­i­da­tion although no fin­ish­er (yet) but when G start­ed tak­ing out Sin­gle prints in C I thought to take a sin­gle print fade short look­ing for IB edge as prof­it target. 
  • Gold: No trades taken
• What could I have done better?
  • GBPNZD: 
    • T1: on the first trade I feel the premise was valid and I took a chance on an exper­i­men­tal trade. I believe that being around D1 lev­els makes price behave some­what dif­fer­ent so will take a side­note of this. Or per­haps stick with hav­ing the M5 entry coin­cide with a test of IB edge. Obvi­ous that I need to col­lect more data on this. Will review my pre­vi­ous notes.
    • T2: The sell­ing tail in D was only 2 TPOs which is not strong at all. Thought I could get a quick oppor­tunis­tic scalp in but sad­ly price reversed and took out my SL again. Plus there was no rever­sal com­plet­ed on M30 although the con­sol­i­da­tion was enough in my opinion. 
      • I should have also recal­cu­lat­ed the cor­rect per­cent­age in FX syn­er­gy which I neglect­ed to do so siz­ing was some­what off. 
• How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?
  • GBPNZD: I felt slight­ly jumpy dur­ing the first trade towards the end but that was only because I felt less con­fi­dent about the trade. On the sec­ond one I felt much bet­ter as price had moved in my favor a bit before yet again reversing. 

How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

• I did well today even though I was a bit tired ear­li­er. I did not get angry or what­ev­er and still feel very much calm. I learned some good lessons today to solid­i­fy more of my knowl­edge in these set­tings. Doc­u­ment­ed the trades into my playbook. 

What did I learn today?

• Don’t go against the trend when ADR is exhaust­ed unless there is more of a con­flu­ence for a rever­sal ie. sell­ing tail con­fi­dent rever­sal pat­tern, 4+ TPO struc­ture build up, sin­gle print fade. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

• Take chances and val­i­date my abil­i­ty through tak­ing cal­cu­lat­ed oppor­tu­ni­ties. False or wrong. It is okay to make mis­takes as long as you learn from them. No oth­er way to make mis­takes by tak­ing trades. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

• Wor­ry about mak­ing mon­ey. I am here to prove that I can trade a big­ger account by fol­low­ing my rules. Wor­ry about not fol­low­ing rules. If you fol­low the rules and you lose mon­ey that is more than okay. Look for what you can do bet­ter instead of look­ing ways to make mon­ey. Process is king. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

• I did pret­ty well to change my bias and quick­ly go short based on some­thing that I saw devel­op­ing. Albeit that it wasn’t enough and now I know that I should have looked for more con­flu­ence before going against the move. Live and learn. 

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210308

Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210308

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