How did I trade today? 20210301

Sum­ma­ry: Tak­ing notes

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Only trade the main fund

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

Summary

• GBPNZD
  • IB: Trad­ed higher
  • C: Extend­ed over IB right into H4 sup­ply closed almost on it’s high. Looks like a sus­tained move. 
  • D: Made HHs clos­ing again almost on its high leav­ing sin­gle prints behind
  • E: Made HHs, auc­tion sus­tained reach­ing D1 C‑sup
  • F: Closed mak­ing HHs , some TPO struc­ture build­ing up although scat­tered but no rever­sal (yet)
  • G: Made HHs tak­ing out LTF and H4 supply
  • H: Closed down below G not entire­ly a Bear Engulf. 4 TPO struc­ture but not going to trade into over­lap noise.

Sum­ma­ry

• GOLD
  • IB: Trad­ed lower
  • C: extend­ed slight­ly below IB
  • D: Made LLs and closed below IB might be look­ing at a low/medium ini­tia­tive day
    • With no H4 demand in the way it’s a lit­tle odd for the slow pace
  • E: Made LLs and closed almost on its low
  • F: M15 Bull Engulf (not on the hour), closed as an Inside Bar retrac­ing 50% but with a slight sell­ing wick
  • G: Closed as a Bear Engulf
  • H: Closed mak­ing slight LLs

Hypos

GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Larg­er time frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment. Asia trad­ed slight­ly lower.
  • Pre­ferred: Bull­ish Price action with IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auc­tion. IB exten­sion down (test­ing VAH) with failed auc­tion might be a bet­ter oppor­tu­ni­ty as it clears some space to leave for a bet­ter prof­it target.
  • Con: Over­head H4 sup­ply, H4 QHi Rejec­tion, huge D1 bull engulf might see some retracement
  • 100%
  • Price extend­ed up dur­ing C on momen­tum and sus­tained auc­tion leav­ing sin­gle prints behind.

GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Larg­er time­frame bear­ish sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Bear­ish price action, pos­si­ble test­ing val­ue but not clos­ing with­in fol­lowed by an IB exten­sion down
  • Con: N.A.
  • 100%
  • Price extend­ed below IB dur­ing C and sus­tained auc­tion although with low/medium ini­tia­tive activity.

Process

How well did I fol­low my process?

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket narrative?
  • GBPNZD: I did well here and yet again expe­ri­enced a move that could have net­ted almost 4R. Yet again a move deep into over­head sup­ply of which I have tak­en notes for my playbook. 
  • Gold: I did well here as well and it played out as visu­al­ized although did not expect a low/medium ini­tia­tive day.
• Was it a good trade (if any)
  • GBPNZD: I did not want to take a trade straight into a medi­um time­frame sup­ply. How­ev­er, I’ve seen these con­di­tions before and not­ed them once again into my playbook. 
  • Gold: This was a bit odd. I felt hes­i­tant to take a trade even though thing unfold­ed as hypoth­e­sized. Because I felt hes­i­tant I decid­ed to not take the trade. As of writ­ing this the trade would have only net­ted 1R. I think the hes­i­ta­tion had more to do with me kin­da hav­ing decid­ed to take it easy today. I just came back from a trip and wrote my week­ly, dai­ly plans as well as fin­ished up my month­ly report on February. 
• What could I have done better?
  • GBPNZD: I think I did well to not trade into sup­ply even though price action and order­flow was scream­ing oth­er­wise. I will go over sim­i­lar plays in review and see what I can learn more from it and hope­ful­ly be ready next time. Per­haps when I have some buffer for the month I can take a chance on one of these plays. 
  • Gold: I could have tak­en the trade but again I felt hes­i­tant and thus I would have lost a lot of men­tal cap­i­tal sit­ting in the trade tor­tur­ing myself. If I want to be in a trade I am very con­fi­dent and that helps me stay with a trade. I also felt I didn’t entire­ly stalk the trade so missed the best trade. Did well to not act out of FOMO when I saw a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move. I was con­sid­er­ing a late-sus­tained auc­tion but didn’t like the R/R it would offer.
• How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?
  • No trades taken

How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

• I did well. 

What did I learn today?

• Even though I was aligned with the mar­ket nar­ra­tive I did not act out of FOMO and hopped in any­way. I know this time it would have worked but that is a slip­pery slope. I need to hypoth­e­size, visu­al­ize, stalk an oppor­tu­ni­ty, then exe­cute. Then let the gods take over while I do my OODA loops to decide to stick with the trade or not.

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

• Fol­low my rules

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

• Feel I got­ta get in on a trade. If I missed a trade I sim­ply missed it. Take notes and move along. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

• I did well today.

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210301

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210301

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