How did I trade today? 20210223

Sum­ma­ry: Build­ing instincts through experience

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless mul­ti­ple con­di­tions are met

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Fair Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Bad Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 3

Sum­ma­ry

• GBPNZD
  • IB: Bear Engulf in B still above M30 VWAP in UT
  • C: C closed extend­ing below wait­ing for a rejec­tion up but got in on a trade on Gold. 
  • D: Closed as a Bull Engulf fail­ing auc­tion. Sta­tis­ti­cal­ly speak­ing it is not like­ly for price to burst over IB, plus there is still that D1 C‑sup there.
  • E: Closed as an Inside bar with equal wicks pos­si­bil­i­ty for more upside form­ing a Neu­tral Day espe­cial­ly con­sid­er­ing a H1 con­sol­i­da­tion and break up although not the strongest. 
  • F: Closed with­in IB

• GOLD
  • IB: Formed a Morn­ing Star
  • C: Closed as a Bear Engulf extend­ing below IB (tak­ing out H4 demand) although clos­ing with­in IB
    • Short 1805.525 SL 1810.100 TP 1800.955 (1R)
  • D: Extend­ed below IB
  • E: I act­ed out of FOMO and took prof­its too quick­ly ie. with­out any exit rule. There was a poor low and no rever­sal pat­tern on M5/M15 so shouldn’t have tak­en the trade off. I just found that it took a long time to take out the wide M5 demand so took it off plus with new­ly formed H1 bear engulf I thought a test of c‑sup could be on the hori­zon before a con­tin­u­a­tion down. Fur­ther­more with M30 VWAP in UT after a break down from VWAP we can see some kind of a bounce at M30 LKC or 50MA. As we already broke down from 50MA I had already gath­ered to not take more than about 1R prof­it (also due to being in the last week of the month)
    • Prof­it 0.25R
    • Closed as a Bull Engulf with­in IB. Per­haps I was on to some­thing there after all. 
  • F: Closed as a Bear­ish Inside Bar

Hypos

GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: W1/H4 QLo rejec­tion, pos­si­ble W1 RBR in the making
  • Pre­ferred: Pull­back to VAH with bull­ish price action, IB exten­sion up (momen­tum) and sus­tained auction
  • Con: D1‑C‑S 1.92730
  • 80% cor­rect
  • Instead there was an exten­sion down in C with D fail­ing auc­tion with a Bull Engulf but then at the moment of writ­ing there has not been a fol­low-through on the move. 

GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: W1 base retrace­ment, H4 bear Engulf in larg­er time frame bear­ish sentiment.
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly take out of LTF demand, IB exten­sion down (momen­tum) with sus­tained auction. 
  • 90% cor­rect 
  • Although there was no sus­tained auc­tion. In fact we turned around fail­ing auction.

Process

How well did I fol­low my process?

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket narrative?
  • GBPNZD: I did well here but due to D1 C‑sup over­head I did not feel like act­ing on the devel­op­ing price action. That and I was already in a trade in Gold. 
  • Gold: I did okay. Even though I had the direc­tion right at the moment, price had not ful­filled mean rever­sion cri­te­ria before I entered on it. Hence my Swing Rever­sal / Mean rever­sion title for the hypo. Due to near­by sup­plies and W1 base lev­el not being hit I gath­ered a pos­si­ble pull­back of some sorts would be most prob­a­ble. When we extend­ed below IB dur­ing C I had hoped for momen­tum to come on (which didn’t). 
• Was it a good trade (if any)
  • GBPNZD: No trades taken
  • Gold: It was okay. A H4 bear Engulf was formed after a big move up in D1 retrac­ing back a move on W1 I thought we could see some pull­back. Espe­cial­ly after tak­ing out H4 demand and exten­sion down dur­ing C. 
• What could I have done better?
  • GBPNZD: I did well here
  • Gold: I could have had a bet­ter entry dur­ing C on the M15 Bear Engulf and 2nd chance entry. Still it was okay.
• How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?
  • I felt a bit jumpy so I walked around a bit and did some weights. I focused on fol­low­ing my rules but when it took ‘too long’ to take out M5 demand which was wide I cut the trade off for a small prof­it. Kin­da luck­i­ly as price quick­ly reversed and trad­ed high­er fail­ing auc­tion (although still leav­ing a poor low).

How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

• I did well by walk­ing around and doing some weights but more impor­tant­ly telling myself it is okay to take a loss as this is part of my edge. I focused on fol­low­ing my rules (sure giv­en that I still feel like I broke my rule even though price did reverse). I think sub­con­scious­ly the price action had reg­is­tered as some­thing I had seen before togeth­er with loca­tion that I felt like tak­ing it off. 

What did I learn today?

• I am build­ing instincts through expe­ri­ence. I have here day in day out watch­ing price action react to my pre­de­ter­mined lev­els. I am bound to under­stand price action bet­ter than the next guy/gal that doesn’t put in the time. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

• Trust in myself. That means even when mak­ing mis­takes. I have process­es in place to 1) gath­er data on my mis­takes etc. 2) to tack­le said mis­takes method­i­cal­ly as part of my edge. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

• Wor­ry about any out­come. Just fol­low my rules and over the long term I will get there. Through what­ev­er route that may be. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

• I did okay

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210223

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210223

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