How did I trade today? 20210222

Sum­ma­ry: Return to Val­ue LTF opportunity

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless mul­ti­ple con­di­tions are met

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

Sum­ma­ry

• GBPNZD
  • IB: A trad­ed high­er to VAL with B retrac­ing and clos­ing as a Bear­ish inside Bar. Pos­si­ble Hypo 2 in play although Hypo 1 is favored still. 
  • C: Closed retrac­ing all of B in a consolidation 
  • D: Closed as a Bear Engulf but don’t feel like tak­ing an entry based on this. It is a Marubozu can­dle which is sup­posed to be strong. But at these high­er time frame lev­els and their nar­ra­tives I feel there are more of these fak­ing a poten­tial set­up. Even if this is not the case trad­ing direct­ly into a swing low with larg­er time frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment is not a good idea any­way. Although the open sen­ti­ment below val­ue makes me won­der if there is actu­al­ly more down­side coming. 
  • E: Closed an Inside Bar with longer sell­ing wick — still no IB extension
  • F: Closed trad­ing high­er with longer buy­ing wick
  • G: Closed as consolidation
  • H: Closed extend­ing below IB almost on top of D1 C‑dem. 

Sum­ma­ry

• GOLD
  • IB: A closed as Bear Engulf and B closed as a con­sol­i­da­tion retrac­ing almost all of A
  • C: Extend­ed over IB
  • D: Made a slight HH closed as a Grave­stone Doji
  • E: Closed form­ing an Evening Star although no failed auction
  • F: Closed as anoth­er grave­stone doji, long M15 con­sol­i­da­tion till now
  • G: Closed form­ing a Morn­ing Star
  • H: Closed as a Bear Engulf slight­ly with­in IB

Hypos

GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 phase 4 continuation
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly move to val­ue edge with bear­ish price action rever­sal either fail­ing auc­tion or with­in IB range. 
  • Con: in line with Friday’s move plus larg­er time­frame sentiment
  • 90% cor­rect
  • Price indeed went to VAL and formed a con­sol­i­da­tion with a strong bear­ish fin­ish­er. Although the fin­ish­er came in the form of a Marubozu can­dle (nor­mal­ly a very strong can­dle) but under these mar­ket con­di­tions I found them to sim­ply be a fake out of sorts. Loe and behold what fol­lowed was a mere con­sol­i­da­tion although the move final­ly came dur­ing H extend­ing below IB form­ing a H4 DBD with longer sell­ing wick. 

GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Bull Engulf
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly Bull­ish price action with exten­sion on momen­tum fol­lowed by a sus­tained auction.
  • Con: Open sentiment
  • 70% cor­rect
  • There was an IB break up in C fol­lowed by con­sol­i­da­tion and pos­si­ble rever­sal hence Hypo 1 play­ing out. 

Process

How well did I fol­low my process?

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket narrative?
  • GBPNZD: I did well here to look for fur­ther con­fir­ma­tion on any trade idea before con­sid­er­ing an entry. 
  • Gold: I did well to stay out as a momen­tum exten­sion up at this open sen­ti­ment would have more like­ly to fail as shown through the con­sol­i­da­tion that followed. 
• Was it a good trade (if any)
  • GBPNZD: A M5 oppor­tu­ni­ty (tech­ni­cal­ly even a M15 one) was there but I did not take it. Still build­ing expe­ri­ence in doing so. The M15 I didn’t take as I thought the prof­it tar­get was sub­par with D1 C‑dem right there. 
  • Gold: No trades taken
• What could I have done better?
  • GBPNZD: I could have tak­en a shot on the LTF entry but did not want to risk it as it wasn’t the clean­est of opportunities. 
  • Gold: N.A.
• How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?
  • All well

How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

• I did well here

What did I learn today?

• Learn­ing more about the intri­ca­cies of M5/M15 price com­bi­na­tions with­in a H4 and mar­ket pro­file narrative. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

• Be the sci­en­tist and keep on learning. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

• Feel bad about not tak­ing a LTF entry as I am still build­ing con­fi­dence in doing so. If a trade jumps out to me I know what to do. Every­thing else means I still need to learn and/or build confidence. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

• I did well today.

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210222

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210222

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