How did I trade today? 20210218

Sum­ma­ry: Con­tin­u­ous learning

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless mul­ti­ple con­di­tions are met

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

Sum­ma­ry

• GBPNZD
  • IB: Was con­sid­er­ing to go long at the open but decid­ed it was more of a gam­ble as I had not objec­tive­ly wit­nessed sim­i­lar mar­ket con­di­tions so let it go. 
    • A closed high­er at VAH but no close above (yet) although it looks like a pos­si­ble sus­tained move higher
    • B retraced almost all of A. Good thing I didn’t go in although I do still believe we could see more upside.
  • C: Closed as an Inside Bar although not the strongest.
  • D: closed as a con­sol­i­da­tion with longer sell­ing wick (shoot­ing star) although still believe there is more upside coming
  • E: Closed as a M30 RBR no close above VAH or IB exten­sion (yet)
  • F: CLosed slight­ly above VAH (tech­ni­cal­ly rejec­tion val­ue) but still some over­head sup­ply and no IB exten­sion yet even if there was I will not enter on a break of IB as we are late in the ses­sion. I could have entered on a M5 Bull Engulf which I will take into my playbook. 
  • G: Extend­ed over IB with some reac­tion off ADR 0.5 high closed above IB below ADR though
  • H: Extend­ed mak­ing HHs in a sus­tained auc­tion, H4 con­tin­u­a­tion high­er clos­ing deep into over­head supply.

Sum­ma­ry

• GOLD
  • IB: A tried tak­ing out LTF demand but closed slight­ly high as a Ham­mer, Closed deep into val­ue with a fair­ly long move up.
  • C: Closed as an Inside Bar, with H4 c‑sup near VAH we could see more reac­tion. M15 is show­ing price poten­tial­ly faltering. 
  • D: closed as a con­sol­i­da­tion, H1 drag­on­fly doji
  • E: Closed as a bear engulf, pos­si­ble form­ing a H1 Evening Star although there are usu­al­ly some buy­ers left around this sce­nario, also after the val­ue accep­tance we haven’t had a 90+% rota­tion through (although close)
  • F: Closed as an INside Bar retrac­ing more than 50% after react­ing off LTF demand, clos­ing as H1 Evening Star with long buy­ing wick.
  • G: Trad­ed high­er back over DPOC as visu­al­ized ear­li­er with the H1 Evening star end­ing with a long buy­ing wick
  • H: Closed as M30 Bear Engulf and H4 RBR bull engulf with longer sell­ing wick

Hypos — GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 con­sol­i­da­tion, D1 pos­si­ble RBR, Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sentiment.
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly strong close above VAH with IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auction. 
  • Con: Bal­anced open sen­ti­ment and H4 Morn­ing Star not hav­ing closed with­in over­head supply.
  • Vari­a­tion: Pos­si­bly due to H4‑C‑S 1.94113 and ADR exhaus­tion we could see a rever­sal if Mar­ket Pro­file and price action rever­sal aligns.
  • 90% cor­rect
  • There was no ear­ly strong close above VAH con­firm­ing a rejec­tion. This came late into the ses­sion. The ear­ly part of the ses­sion I thought Hypo 2 was in play.

Hypos — GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment with close prox­im­i­ty we could pos­si­ble see val­ue being accept­ed pos­si­bly form­ing H4 RBR.
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly accep­tance with quick follow-through.
  • 90% cor­rect
  • There was an ear­ly accep­tance and then just some con­sol­i­da­tion and even clos­ing below VAL again only to trade slight­ly high­er again. We did form that H4 RBR.

How well did I fol­low my process?

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket narrative?
  • GBPNZD: I did well on this part fol­low­ing the larg­er time­frame sen­ti­ment and visu­al­iz­ing what I want­ed to see. When what I want­ed to see did not quite align the way I want­ed I let it go and just observed and took notes for my playbook. 
  • Gold: With the ear­ly accep­tance I was reluc­tant go go long on a pull­back to val­ue edge as we had closed fair­ly deep with­in val­ue. This was due to the H4 C‑sup  right at VAH most like­ly being reactive. 
• Was it a good trade (if any)
  • GBPNZD: I was stalk­ing lots of oppor­tu­ni­ties and at first when I thought Hypo 2 was in play after all I didn’t want to go short due to the larg­er time frame bull­ish nar­ra­tive. After we had what seemed quite the fail­ure to close above VAH ear­ly on I was hes­i­tant to go long as well. This is the first time objec­tive­ly and active­ly observ­ing cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tions so when in doubt, get out! Well no.. don’t trade! 
  • Gold: I am pri­mar­i­ly focused on GBPNZD. As men­tioned I did not want to go long into a H4 C‑sup even with the accep­tance. I did not find any good R/R tar­gets so I let it go. 
• What could I have done better?
  • GBPNZD: Not sure if I could nec­es­sar­i­ly have done some­thing bet­ter but I am active­ly for­ward test­ing the con­di­tions for a M5 entry to add to my arse­nal as I nor­mal­ly trade off the M30 or M15. It seems under con­di­tions we’ve had late­ly the move could already be well on its way or give a sub­par SL placement.
  • Gold: I did well here
• How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?
  • GBPNZD: No trades taken
  • Gold: No trades taken

How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

• I did well here. I felt like going long when being in a LTF QHi and price action looked sus­tained but due to not hav­ing a clear 2R prof­it tar­get and know­ing that it would have been more out of FOMO I just let the trade go. It would suck to get lucky on a bad trade not fol­low­ing your plan. 

What did I learn today?

• I learned that I can stay objec­tive fol­low­ing my rules even when that means I am not trad­ing. I learned so much again and am hap­py to see that the mar­kets are slow­ly going back to their usu­al rhythm. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

• Keep being a stu­dent of the mar­kets. Lucky me as this will nev­er ever end. It’s like a huge puz­zle you get to fig­ure out every­day. Then you still got­ta find a way to prof­it from it 🙂

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

• I did every­thing well today so fuck off 🙂

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

• I did

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210218

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210218

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