How did I trade today? 12212020

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Sum­ma­ry: Trad­ing into sup­ply and demand

P&L: FLAT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Don’t take trades where SL place­ment is sub­op­ti­mal. Instead, reassess for a bet­ter entry if pos­si­ble. Unless there is a planned momen­tum trade.

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

Sum­ma­ry

• GBPNZD
  • IB: Closed as a big Inside Bar and fur­ther move down. No M30 rever­sal pat­tern yet. There was a M15 Bull Engulf ear­ly in A but no fol­low-through (yet). This might be due to the over­head LTF sup­plies and M30 VWAP.
  • C: Closed as a Bull Engulf with longer sell­ing wick below M30 VWAP in DT
  • D: Closed as a Doji with­in consolidation. 
  • E: Closed as M30 RBR
  • F: F closed extend­ing up over IB. Paper trade took out 2R, near­ing 2.5 R
  • G: Closed as an inside bar 

Sum­ma­ry

• GOLD
  • IB: Closed as Inside Bar an pos­si­ble con­sol­i­da­tion, H1 DBD with In
  • C: Closed as a con­sol­i­da­tion with longer buy­ing wick / M15 Bull Engulf
  • D: Closed as Bear Engulf extend­ing 1xASR down about dou­bling IB range into under­ly­ing H4 C‑dem.
  • E: Exhaust­ed ADR low 1.4xADR 
  • F: Closed as Inside Bar with long sell­ing wick
  • G: Closed as Three Inside Up

Hypos — GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion up (momen­tum), sus­tained auction
  • 90%
  • There was no momen­tum. Prob­a­bly because of the LTF sup­plies in the way. I took note to out­line this behav­iour next time it arises. 

Hypos — GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 2  — Swing Reversal
  • Pre­ferred: Bear­ish price action, IB exten­sion down and sus­tained auction
  • 100%
  • There was a DBD pre­mar­ket. At the open an Inside Bar and con­sol­i­da­tion then a momen­tum burst dur­ing D extend­ing 1xASR, E tak­ing it over 1.4xADR

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket context?

• I did well here

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

• No trades beside the M15 paper trade. I felt good throughout. 

How well did I fol­low my process?

• Trade selec­tion
  • The M15 entry would have been at a retest of M15 Bull Engulf that formed pre­mar­ket. Oth­er­wise there would not have been any entry qual­i­fy­ing for a good SL place­ment. I did well to stay out even though I was stalk­ing this opportunity. 
• Trade Siz­ing & SL placement
  • There would not have been a good SL place­ment oth­er than the retest of M15 C‑dem formed premarket. 
• Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt
  • Using OODA loop I saw the move was sus­tained and it hit 2R almost near­ing 2.5R

How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

• I did well here

What did I learn today?

• I reaf­firmed the way price behaves when there is supply/demand in its way to a tar­get. When you have a large imbal­ance at the open and near­by H4 demand we can mon­i­tor for entries in the direc­tion of a mean rever­sion. The lack of Medi­um time frame supply/demand makes low­er time frame SD zones mere hur­dles towards a tar­get ie. low/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

• Observe and take notes on poten­tial plays. The more occur­rences of the same event the high­er the prob­a­bil­i­ty for me to take advan­tage of it next time. Even though I was right on the play today I felt the com­bi­na­tion of a M15 new­ly devel­oped demand a tricky entry with­out a good rever­sal price action on top. This did come but the entry off that new bull engulf after open proved a too wide SL place­ment hence no trade. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

• I did well today

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

• I did well today

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 12212020

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 12212020

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