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Summary: Balancing Market
P&L: FLAT
Every trading day I recap my trades, including more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I manage the trade, my emotions and cognitive function? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trader. As always, feel free to reach out to me.
My weekly goal:
- Don’t take trades where SL placement is suboptimal. Instead, reassess for a better entry if possible. Unless there is a planned momentum trade.
Good Pre-market routines
Good Session PECS
Good Trade selection
Good Trade sizing or SL placement
Good Trade Execution & Mgmt.
Good Risk Adjusted Returns
Yes Daily review
Muppet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1
Summary
- GBPNZD
- IB: Traded down. Nothing much going on.
- C: Closed extending down from IB
- D: Formed a poor low and closed as an Inside Bar
- E: Took out Poor Low closing as DBD closed leaving a slight buying tail behind
- F: Closed as a Bull Engulf failing auction
- G: Extended to the other side forming a Neutral Day closing as a Pin Bar
- H: Closed as a slight rally to the pin bar
Summary
- GOLD
- IB: Traded higher followed by a pinbar
- C: Closed as M30 Evening Star but with longer buying wick so there are still some buyers present. Tested IB edge down but no extension. Medium/high still has potential for upside due to previous demand beent aken out.
- D: Closed as a consolidation
- E: Closed as Bear Engulf from consolidation extending down 1 TPO
- Looking like a possible Return to Value play (Hypo 3) might be the best here
- F: Extended further down but then retraced for a possible 2nd chance entry on the Bear Engulf
- Closed as an Inside Bar
- G: Closed as a Three Inside Up
- H: Closed as a continuation to G digging deeper into IB
Hypos — GBPNZD
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 1 — Balancing Market
- Play off nearby LTF SD ZOIs or ADR 0.5
- 100%
- An extension down with price faltering at LTF demand, M5 Inside Bar (retracing more then 50%) followed by a Base and Rally could have been an entry at 1.89675, SL 1.89545, TP (2R) 1.89935 would have been easily hit. Took it down for my playbook as I am not accustomed to trading off M5 yet. Dee whipped me well 🙂
Hypos — GOLD
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
- Price within D1/H4 QHi, Asia traded higher, nearing Mean Reversion criteria.
- Preferred: Price action reversal, IB extension down, sustained auction.
- 100%
- Only there was no follow-through to the move. We had an Evening Star with long buying wick. Followed by consolidation and finisher down through Bear Engulf consequently extending some. Due to the Medium Time frame narrative this would not have been a good opportunity.
How accurate was my assessment of market context? Was I aligned with market context?
- I did well here
How did I feel before, during, and after the trade?
- No trades although a paper trade taking off a M5 entry on GBPNZD based on Hypo 1 playing off nearby LTF demand
How well did I follow my process?
- Trade selection
- GBPNZD paper trade — although risky due to no clear backup on M15 and by the time M30 was finished the move would have been over for the most part.
- Gold — A M15 entry on the Bear Engulf would not have been good through bad SL placement. A M5 entry would have been best. Entry 1880.536, SL 1883.265, TP (2R) 1875.078 would have been easily hit as trade went to 3R. However there was no other LTF price action at the moment to confirm the trade so it would have been more risky. Took it into my playbook as well.
- Trade Sizing & SL placement
- SL placement would have been good based on a M5 entry on both assets
- Trade Execution & Mgmt
- Monitor the trades to hold into higher time frame would have netted a good outcome
How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- I did well to not trade as I was preoccupied with personal life
What did I learn today?
- When in a balancing market and there is no follow-through on a momentum play (ie. failure to dig and close deeper into underlying demand) we can go down to M5 looking for an entry playing off nearby lower time frame SD zones and monitor for a profile and price action confirmation transitioning into higher time frames: M15, M30 etc.
What’s one thing I need to do more often?
- Trust myself to know when I do and do not want to take a trade.
What’s one thing I need to do less often?
- I did well today.
Under the circumstances, did I perform at my best?
- Yes I did… was preoccupied but still managed to control myself to stay clear-headed.
For my trade plan(s) on this particular day, go here: