How did I trade today? 12092020

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Sum­ma­ry: Momen­tum Play Straight into Over­head Supply

P&L: FLAT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Don’t take trades where SL place­ment is sub­op­ti­mal. Instead, reassess for a bet­ter entry if pos­si­ble. Unless there is a planned momen­tum trade.

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

Sum­ma­ry

• GBPNZD
  • Val­ue accep­tance dur­ing IB at LN kicks off rotat­ing through val­ue leav­ing a 0.5xASR wide IB behind. B closed as an Inside Bar.
  • C: closed as a con­sol­i­da­tion. I think we will extend high­er over IB but due to over­head demand it will be a risky trade to take so will back off and observe. Look­ing at low/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
  • D: Closed just above IB edge and M15 Inside bar (on the hour) after mak­ing HHs not clos­ing in over­head LTF supply. 
  • E: Would have been a good late-sus­tained auc­tion trade I think. Made HHs clos­ing as a Reverse Hammer. 
  • F: Closed as a Bear Engulf with Long sell­ing wick and weak failed auc­tion. Only 3 TPO struc­ture. Some slow down on LTF PA. Gonna hit the gym and fin­ish DRC later. 
  • G: Closed as Bull Engulf with longer buy­ing wick
  • H: Made HHs tak­ing out H4 demand
  • I:  Closed fail­ing mak­ing a HH

Sum­ma­ry

• GOLD
  • 0.5xASR wide IB
  • C: Closed as a Bear Engulf retrac­ing almost all of IB after extend­ing up
  • D: Closed as an Inside Bar
  • E: Closed as DBD extend­ing down from IB form­ing a Neu­tral Day
  • F: Closed as an Inside Bar with longer sell­ing wick
  • G: Move back into IB stay­ing below M30 VWAP in DT
  • H: Extend­ed down mak­ing LL clos­ing the H4 bar as DBD as assumed. 

Hypos — GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Accep­tance, 1C: Con­tin­u­a­tion higher
  • Due to D1 price action we could see a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move
  • Pre­ferred: Tak­ing out LTF sup­plies above VAH. Tak­ing out H4 Sup­ply. IB exten­sion up (momen­tum) 
  • 100%
  • 0.5xASR wide IB range indi­cat­ing pos­si­ble momen­tum. Then even though there was a momen­tum move ini­ti­at­ed dur­ing C due to over­head sup­plies there was good push­back so the actu­al exten­sion clos­ing high­er was dur­ing D (which still counts as a momen­tum move). What fol­lowed was a low ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day due to over­head sup­ply and trad­ing right into H4 demand which late in the ses­sion got tak­en out. 

Hypos — GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation
  • Pre­ferred Strong Bear­ish Price action, IB exten­sion down tak­ing out LTF demand. Sus­tained auction. 
  • 70%
  • What hap­pened was an ini­tial move high­er extend­ing IB up, then com­plete­ly retrac­ing and form­ing a DBD extend­ing down in E but clos­ing with­in IB. To then only fake reverse and the actu­al exten­sion down came in H com­plet­ing the assumed H4 DBD hypoth­e­sized earlier. 

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket context?

• I was aligned and stayed objec­tive. I had gath­ered in prep a pos­si­ble D1 Phase 1 with a pos­si­bil­i­ty of a devel­op­ing Morn­ing Star at the bot­tom of the over­all range. So long was more favored. This then turned into a H4 Bull Engulf that trad­ed into a sup­ply. Slow­ly. But surely.

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

• Did not take any trades but did well today

How well did I fol­low my process?

• Trade selec­tion
  • No trades tak­en. I did spot Hypo 1C play­ing out on GBPNZD and con­sid­ered enter­ing but I still feel I made the right deci­sion not trad­ing straight into a H4 Sup­ply. Per­haps when I have more buffer in prof­its and it is not the last year of the month. 
• Trade Siz­ing & SL placement
  • SL would not have been the best but okay due to the expec­ta­tion of a momen­tum move. 
• Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt
  •  Time-based stop would have net­ter 1.3R so again this would not have been worth it since I aim to have 2R minimum. 

How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

• I did real­ly well here. Focus­ing on the pro­ces. Not car­ing about being in a trade. LEAVING to hit the gym ear­ly 🙂 Start­ing to turn my some­what obses­sive behav­iour into some­thing more healthy. Start­ing! Not there yet. 

What did I learn today?

• That I can trust my instincts. When I don’t feel like trad­ing I prob­a­bly have a good rea­son for it. Con­scious­ly or sub­con­scious­ly. Either way. I should nev­er fight that voice. When a trade is obvi­ous and scream­ing, beg­ging for me to take it. I know. And I act. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

• Trust my instincts. Always trade from a point of con­fi­dence. Any lack of con­fi­dence means there is some­thing going on. You might be sit­ting out of a trade that shoots to 5R+ but 1) how often does that hap­pen 2) it is not a delib­er­ate process that will hold in the long run. You might get lucky a few times but then again you might get ham­mered hard. Trust your­self. Stalk an oppor­tu­ni­ty. Deduce the best pos­si­ble con­di­tions and entry mech­a­nism leav­ing a mar­gin for wig­gle room on set con­di­tions and entry. Then.. Pull the trig­ger when the mar­ket meets you halfway or more. I know it sounds hard but once you get here it makes sense… I think…. Might be full of shit 🙂 That’s for you to decide. Just fuck­ing with ya! It is hard but total­ly learn­able. Step by step. Put in the work. Build a process. Apply said process. Nev­er quit. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

• I did well today

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

• I did well today

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 12092020

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 12092020

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