#orderflow #daytrading #fintwit
Every trading day I recap my trades, including more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I manage the trade, my emotions and cognitive function? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trader. As always, feel free to reach out to me.
Summary: Understanding LTF dynamics forming a MTF price pattern
My weekly goal:
- Don’t take trades where SL placement is suboptimal. Instead, reassess for a better entry if possible.
Good Pre-market routines
Good Session PECS
Fair Trade selection
Good Trade sizing or SL placement
Good Trade Execution & Mgmt.
Good Risk Adjusted Returns
Yes Daily review
Muppet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 2
Summary
- GBPNZD
- A: Bull Engulf. IB so far 0.5xASR
- B: M15 Bear Engulf. Closed retracing almost all of A.
- C: M30 Consolidation, no IB extension.
- D: News event driven burst up which would have been a nice quick 3R opportunity if I hadn’t missed it. I was waiting for an extension up first to get involved but then noticed price speeding up and thought perhaps we are popping nearby round number but alas… Closed making HHs
- E: Inside bar retracing more than 50% but no failed auction
- F: Inside bar, possible DBD.
- G: Traded slightly lower but no failed auction just very very weak
- H: Bull Engulf. H4 RBR as hypothesized.
Summary
- GOLD
- C: M30 consolidation
- D: Consolidation continued
- E: Balancing market continued
Hypos — GBPNZD
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 1 – Trend Continuation
- Near VAH + H4 C‑dem
- Preferred strong bullish pattern and IB taking out overhead supply followed by IB extension up (momentum). Sustained auction.
- 100%
- Played out well although it was based around a news event: ‘Brexit deal imminent’ and BOE.
Hypos — GOLD
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- BALANCING MARKET
How accurate was my assessment of market context? Was I aligned with market context?
- I did well here. I gathered that it was a probability for the formation of a H4 RBR after a H4 inside bar was formed premarket. With an open with near proximity to VAH and IB forming a Bull Engulf further aligned with this thesis.
- When TPO B retraced I still felt the overall thesis was valid but was looking for a confirmation based on an extension up to go long (as this would have also taken out the overhead H4 supply mentioned in my premarket prep and my reluctance to trade into it).
- The extension came but it happened so fast I missed it (I had also taken my eye off the charts the moment it happened.
- The trade would have netted a 3R in matter of seconds/minutes taking from a 2nd chance entry. From IB extension up (which did happen during D so momentum was on our side) would have netted about 2R but would have had bad SL placement although momentum would have negated that to some extent.
How did I feel before, during, and after the trade?
- No trades taken
How well did I follow my process?
- I did very well for the most part but failed to act on the burst coming into the market. I had the direction right but should have been aligned already. When the move was happening I did well to stay out and not chase the market. I simply took it as a lesson and started working on my playbook setup. I have the screen recording which I will review as well.
How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- I did well here. I am getting better at being okay with NOT trading. It took me a long time but I feel I am making good progress on this. This in turn also helps to stay objective. I try to think about the fact that I should be stalking an opportunity. Like a predator stalks its prey. By also ‘in the moment’ deducing the best probabilistic behaviour of the market to then act on it (we are NOT PREDICTING here). When the market acts in the way I deduced I have no issue with entering. When I have lost the opportunity due to an unforeseen event or simply misreading the market… It is simply that. A lost opportunity. Learn from it. Move on to the next.
What did I learn today?
- I learned that with a developing H4 price pattern to guide me, the lower time frame price behaviour becomes way more apparent. Especially when combined with market open sentiment and profile confirming the thesis.
- The developing price pattern was a H4 Rally Base Rally where the Rally after the Base wasn’t formed yet. But due to the H4 horizon being well… 4 hours long.. You can see on the lower time frames if indeed this rally is forming after the base was created. If it had gone the other way it would have been a THree Inside Down. Same principles of observation and analytics.
What’s one thing I need to do more often?
- Feel comfortable with analyzing the markets as if being a scientist trying to understand its intricacies. All the while perfectly understanding there is no certainty but that with each candlestick formed there is more data to back or deny your thesis. That is what it is about. Understanding what is going on without trying to force anything. Enjoying the fac you can ‘read’ the markets and not always acting on it. Just because you ‘know’ what the market is going to do doesn’t mean it is in a position to give you a favorable risk to reward.
What’s one thing I need to do less often?
- I feel I did well today and can’t think of much. I did miss the ‘burst’ and could have acted on it hence I gave myself a 2 on the Muppet meter (which is patented and trademarked by the way so don’t think of stealing my meter!!). In my defense I have only witnessed this a handful of times and I am gaining experience. My reasoning at the time was still valid.
Under the circumstances, did I perform at my best?
- I did well today
For my trade plan(s) on this particular day, go here: