13 Jan How did I trade today? 01132021
Summary: Trading isn’t about taking trades
Account (P&L): FLAT
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Every trading day I recap my trades, including more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I manage the trade, my emotions and cognitive function? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trader. As always, feel free to reach out to me.
My weekly goal:
- Don’t take trades where SL placement is suboptimal. Instead, reassess for a better entry if possible. Unless there is a planned momentum trade.
Good Pre-market routines
Good Session PECS
Good Trade selection
Good Trade sizing or SL placement
Good Trade Execution & Mgmt.
Good Risk Adjusted Returns
Yes Daily review
Muppet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1
Summary
- GBPNZD
- IB: A extended up over VAH halting at LTF supply closing slightly within. B moved higher taking out LTF and H4 supply hitting W1 C‑sup with initial reaction closing higher leaving behind a longer selling wick (still looking bullish though)
- C: Traded higher with no extension (yet). Looking for some kind of reversal as there is a D1/W1 supply overhead.
- D: Extended closing above IB at W1/D1 C‑sup nearing ADR exhaustion
- E: Closed making HHs leaving a single print in D behind. Due to the relative short proximity to IB edge high and sustained auction we might test this level.
- F: Closed as an Inside Bar (H1 Shooting Star) retracing almost to structure edge low (without taking one single print out as that was what I was visualizing for a continuation late sustained auction entry).
- G: Closed as a weak failed auction.
Summary
- GOLD
- IB: M30 DBD premarket, A closing down as a continuation reacting off LTF demand below VAL. B moved lower bu closed as an Inside Bar / M15 Bull Engulf
- C: Closed as continuation of M30 DBD extending 1xIB range below IB
- D: Closed as big Inside Bar retracing more than 50%
- E: Closed as a consolidation
- F: Closed as consolidation with longer selling wick
- G: Continuation on consolidation.
Hypos — GBPNZD
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypos
- 2 — Trend Continuation / Value Rejection Up
- Preferred: Strong Bullish price action (as we are trading directly into supply), IB extension up and sustained auction taking out H4 supply.
- 100%
- 1 & 4 — Balanced Market + Swing Reversal
- 1 — Balancing Market
- Play off nearby LTF SD and ADR levels.
- 4 — Preferred: IB extension up with price action reversal failing auction and quick follow-through
- 100%
- Initially during IB we had Hypo 2 play out which then transgressed into Hypo 1 / 4 which turned out to be about the same hypothesis. We did have a sustained auction up but then price slowed down and formed a M30 Inside Bar during F and we took out single prints in D during G. At the time of writing G has not closed yet so Hypo 4 is not entirely confirmed as of yet. Will check back on that later.
- 1 — Balancing Market
- 2 — Trend Continuation / Value Rejection Up
Hypos — GOLD
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 2 — Value Rejection Down
- Preferred: IB extension down taking out LTF and H4 demand, sustained auction.
- 90%
- We extended below IB about 1x and then transitioned into a consolidation.
How accurate was my assessment of market context? Was I aligned with market context?
- I did really well here. Even though I was stalking a reversal as per Hypo 4 there was not enough of a TPO structure built to make me feel confident going against the move. With how price sustained auction I visualized a late-sustained auction entry move I have seen multiple times before and thought to enter long. However, with price having slowed down and not quite reaching TPO structure low before closed the TPO fairly bearish I decided to let the trade idea go and simply observe as this is not an entry I have executed on many times. I believe only once.
- For a late-sustained auction entry direct into a supply or demand zone: I need faster paced price action testing TPO structure low (after a sustained auction) before closing as a Base. Due to a higher time frame supply this was not feasible today and the reversal was ‘confirmed’ through a weak failed auction.
How did I feel before, during, and after the trade?
- No trades taken but felt great throughout the session.
How well did I follow my process?
- Trade selection
- No trades taken. If I had gone long as per hypo 2 I would have been trading right into overhead demand which would have been very risky.
- Trade Sizing & SL placement
- SL placement would have been okay as it would have been a momentum trade although coming from within value this was yet another reason to NOT take the trade.
- Trade Execution & Mgmt
- If I had taken the trade TPO F close would have taken me out at very minor profit after only having traversed 1R perhaps.
How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- Did really well here staying objective stalking potential opportunities engaging for price action to confirm a possible trading idea and not forcing my views onto the market.
What did I learn today?
- Our job is to sit here and find alignment with the market. When an opportunity arises that fits our risk profile (based on a statistically proven setup) we execute a trade. Nothing more. Nothing less.
What’s one thing I need to do more often?
- Stay observant and follow price
What’s one thing I need to do less often?
- Feel I need to trade. Which… I am getting very good at. Kudos to me.
Under the circumstances, did I perform at my best?
- I did very well today. Done and hitting the gym!
For my trade plan(s) on this particular day, go here:
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