How did I trade today? 01082021

Sum­ma­ry: Trade high prob­a­bil­i­ty over a ‘rare’ event anytime

Account (P&L): ‑0.4R

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Don’t take trades where SL place­ment is sub­op­ti­mal. Instead, reassess for a bet­ter entry if pos­si­ble. Unless there is a planned momen­tum trade.

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Bad Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 3

Sum­ma­ry

• GBPNZD
  • IB: Took a long entry off the first M15 RBR 
    • Long 1.87298, SL 1.87038, TP 1.87929
    • IB trad­ed high­er cre­at­ing M15 RBR
    • Cons: trad­ing right into supply
  • C: Extend­ed one TPO over IB then closed as a con­sol­i­da­tion. Noth­ing much happening. 
  • D: Closed low­er with­in IB. M15 Bear Engulf (on the hour). Took the trade off at ‑0.4R. Looks like a day where we might watch paint dry.The 1 TPO exten­sion should have tipped me off a move in my favor was not like­ly to happen. 
  • E: Trad­ed low­er deep­er into IB.
  • F: Closed deep­er into IB with longer sell­ing wick

Sum­ma­ry

• GOLD
  • IB: Mas­sive drop 1.7xASR
  • C: Closed as a Doji
  • D: Morn­ing Star formed after ini­tial reac­tion off MN demand (and with­in H4 QLo) although due to mas­sive IB range I do not expect much to hap­pen with­in this session. 
  • E: Watch­ing paint dry…

Hypos — GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 2 — Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Pre­ferred: Play off near­by LTF SD and ADR levels
  • 100%
  • Price trad­ed with­in val­ue against ADR 0.5 high and start­ed to reverse. This would have been the actu­al play. 

Hypos — GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• None. Should have includ­ed respon­sive activ­i­ty due to mas­sive IB range’ 

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket context?

• I could have done bet­ter today. We had an open with­in val­ue and thus I should have opt­ed to play off near­by LTF SD and or ADR lev­els as hypoth­e­sized. Due to H4 clos­ing bull­ish pre­mar­ket tak­ing out LTF sup­ply mak­ing bull­ish LTF price action I gath­ered we could see a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move. So that’s what I went for. The dif­fer­ence with yes­ter­day was that we had an open below val­ue and we then pro­ceed­ed to accept and con­tin­ue and thus pro­file was help­ing to lead the direc­tion where­as today we opened within. 
• I give myself some slack on the fact that it is my first time (con­scious­ly on my own) observ­ing an ADR 0.5 lev­el from with­in (with near­by H4 c‑sup) and the trade would have been best to take based on a M5 entry. Although a retest of M15 Bear Engulf c‑line would have done the trick as well. I will review this again. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

• I felt good.Before,during and after. Although when C only extend­ed over IB with one TPO I kin­da already had the idea that this was not going to hap­pen. Going through OODA loops I saw that price was fal­ter­ing on LTF and I planned an exit wait­ing for a bear­ish M15 can­dle close ie. the bear engulf which could have been my entry instead. 

How well did I fol­low my process?

• Trade selec­tion
  • Poor­ly done. 
• Trade Siz­ing & SL placement
  • This was fair as it was below the for­ma­tion expect­ing a momen­tum play also implied SL not need­ing to be the best.
• Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt
  • Did well to cut the trade off. I was going through OODA loops and was let­ting the H1 lead the trade to show me (in com­bi­na­tion with LTF price action) if the trade was inval­i­dat­ed. Did well here. No grasshop­per­ing here 🙂

How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

• I did well here. Didn’t feel both­ered by the trade. Real­ized the trade was more prob­a­ble to go against me and wait­ed for a good con­fir­ma­tion as per my trad­ing rules and min­i­mized a loss. I stayed obser­vant. Took a minor loss. And mov­ing on. 

What did I learn today?

• Don’t expect any momen­tum play with an open with­in val­ue coin­cid­ing with a Non-farm day.

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

• Under­stand con­text. Real­ly be more mind­ful of fun­da­men­tals. I know I always say I can see it in the price action but still it would have giv­en bet­ter con­text to the con­di­tions. Also give myself the breath­ing room that I act with­in the realm of prob­a­bil­i­ties. The mar­ket gives us prob­a­bil­i­ties but as there are prob­a­bil­i­ties on my own abil­i­ties in terms of doing the right thing at all times. Very not so fan­cy way of say­ing: shit hap­pens. Deal with it. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

• Wor­ry about any out­come as we have decid­ed to live in the world of prob­a­bil­i­ties. Can’t win em all 🙂 Although I did real­ly well with this as it didn’t both­er me. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

• I did fair­ly well today con­sid­er­ing. Also when gath­er­ing the mar­ket con­di­tions on Gold. 

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 01082021

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 01092021

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