08 Jan How did I trade today? 01082021
Summary: Trade high probability over a ‘rare’ event anytime
Account (P&L): ‑0.4R
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Every trading day I recap my trades, including more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I manage the trade, my emotions and cognitive function? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trader. As always, feel free to reach out to me.
My weekly goal:
- Don’t take trades where SL placement is suboptimal. Instead, reassess for a better entry if possible. Unless there is a planned momentum trade.
Good Pre-market routines
Good Session PECS
Bad Trade selection
Good Trade sizing or SL placement
Good Trade Execution & Mgmt.
Good Risk Adjusted Returns
Yes Daily review
Muppet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 3
Summary
- GBPNZD
- IB: Took a long entry off the first M15 RBR
- Long 1.87298, SL 1.87038, TP 1.87929
- IB traded higher creating M15 RBR
- Cons: trading right into supply
- C: Extended one TPO over IB then closed as a consolidation. Nothing much happening.
- D: Closed lower within IB. M15 Bear Engulf (on the hour). Took the trade off at ‑0.4R. Looks like a day where we might watch paint dry.The 1 TPO extension should have tipped me off a move in my favor was not likely to happen.
- E: Traded lower deeper into IB.
- F: Closed deeper into IB with longer selling wick
- IB: Took a long entry off the first M15 RBR
Summary
- GOLD
- IB: Massive drop 1.7xASR
- C: Closed as a Doji
- D: Morning Star formed after initial reaction off MN demand (and within H4 QLo) although due to massive IB range I do not expect much to happen within this session.
- E: Watching paint dry…
Hypos — GBPNZD
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 2 — Balancing Market
- Preferred: Play off nearby LTF SD and ADR levels
- 100%
- Price traded within value against ADR 0.5 high and started to reverse. This would have been the actual play.
Hypos — GOLD
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- None. Should have included responsive activity due to massive IB range’
How accurate was my assessment of market context? Was I aligned with market context?
- I could have done better today. We had an open within value and thus I should have opted to play off nearby LTF SD and or ADR levels as hypothesized. Due to H4 closing bullish premarket taking out LTF supply making bullish LTF price action I gathered we could see a continuation to the move. So that’s what I went for. The difference with yesterday was that we had an open below value and we then proceeded to accept and continue and thus profile was helping to lead the direction whereas today we opened within.
- I give myself some slack on the fact that it is my first time (consciously on my own) observing an ADR 0.5 level from within (with nearby H4 c‑sup) and the trade would have been best to take based on a M5 entry. Although a retest of M15 Bear Engulf c‑line would have done the trick as well. I will review this again.
How did I feel before, during, and after the trade?
- I felt good.Before,during and after. Although when C only extended over IB with one TPO I kinda already had the idea that this was not going to happen. Going through OODA loops I saw that price was faltering on LTF and I planned an exit waiting for a bearish M15 candle close ie. the bear engulf which could have been my entry instead.
How well did I follow my process?
- Trade selection
- Poorly done.
- Trade Sizing & SL placement
- This was fair as it was below the formation expecting a momentum play also implied SL not needing to be the best.
- Trade Execution & Mgmt
- Did well to cut the trade off. I was going through OODA loops and was letting the H1 lead the trade to show me (in combination with LTF price action) if the trade was invalidated. Did well here. No grasshoppering here 🙂
How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- I did well here. Didn’t feel bothered by the trade. Realized the trade was more probable to go against me and waited for a good confirmation as per my trading rules and minimized a loss. I stayed observant. Took a minor loss. And moving on.
What did I learn today?
- Don’t expect any momentum play with an open within value coinciding with a Non-farm day.
What’s one thing I need to do more often?
- Understand context. Really be more mindful of fundamentals. I know I always say I can see it in the price action but still it would have given better context to the conditions. Also give myself the breathing room that I act within the realm of probabilities. The market gives us probabilities but as there are probabilities on my own abilities in terms of doing the right thing at all times. Very not so fancy way of saying: shit happens. Deal with it.
What’s one thing I need to do less often?
- Worry about any outcome as we have decided to live in the world of probabilities. Can’t win em all 🙂 Although I did really well with this as it didn’t bother me.
Under the circumstances, did I perform at my best?
- I did fairly well today considering. Also when gathering the market conditions on Gold.
For my trade plan(s) on this particular day, go here:
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