How did I trade today? 01062021

Sum­ma­ry: Mean Rever­sion with a Poor Low

Account (P&L): FLAT

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Don’t take trades where SL place­ment is sub­op­ti­mal. Instead, reassess for a bet­ter entry if pos­si­ble. Unless there is a planned momen­tum trade.

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

Sum­ma­ry

• GBPNZD
  • IB: Closed trad­ing down
  • C: Wait­ing for poor low (although not real­ly since it was cre­at­ed with IB) to get tak­en out which would mean an exten­sion down before any rever­sal. M5 has a Bull Engulf and M15 closed as an Inside Bar (not on the hour) hence expect­ing a con­tin­u­a­tion down towards H4-C‑D 1.86623. Then let’s see if there is some sort of reaction. 
    • Closed as an Inside Bar / M15 con­sol­i­da­tion. No full bull­ish price pat­tern yet though. 
  • D: M15 Break down. No rever­sal pat­tern com­plet­ed. More down­side. LLs made exhaust­ing ADR. 
  • E: Cre­at­ed a poor low as well as exhaust­ing ADR ear­li­er. M15 Bull Engulf (not on the hour) Think­ing about going in but with the poor low I feel it unsafe hence I am stay­ing out. Would need more con­fir­ma­tion before going long. 
    • Closed fail­ing auc­tion with a Bull Engulf but only minor engulfing
  • F: Closed as con­sol­i­da­tion through Inside Bar with longer sell­ing wick
  • G: Con­sol­i­da­tion continued
  • H: broke up from con­sol­i­da­tion, H1 Three Inside Up

Sum­ma­ry

• GOLD
  • IB: Trad­ed high­er with some sell­ing com­ing in dur­ing B but took out H4 supply
  • C: Trad­ed high­er. Hypo 2 probable.
  • D: Extend­ed above IB and closed mak­ing HHs.
  • E: Inside Bar 
  • F: Drag­on­fly doji (weak failed auction)
  • G: failed auc­tion trad­ing well with­in IB again. 

Hypos — GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish price action rever­sal per­haps dur­ing IB after a fur­ther retest down to H4‑C‑D 1.86623. Oth­er­wise a failed auc­tion after an IB exten­sion down. 
  • 100%
  • What hap­pened was an exten­sion down. Saw LTF fal­ter­ing around ADR exhaus­tion and H4 C‑Dem lev­els. M15 print­ed a bull engulf but the pro­file showed a poor low. Price tran­si­tions into a M30 Bull Engulf fail­ing auc­tion and price moved higher. 

Hypos — GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket / Val­ue Rejec­tion Failure
  • PA rever­sal at LTF demand/supply ADR etc. 
  • 100%
  • Price extend­ed over IB (after IB has trav­eled 0.6xASR) extend­ed, fal­tered, failed auction.

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket context?

• I did real­ly well today. I was stalk­ing a pos­si­ble mean rever­sion trade as per Hypo 1. When we extend­ed down from IB I was wait­ing for some rever­sal pat­tern. There was an ear­ly M15 bull engulf but not on the hour. This hap­pened after we had exhaust­ed ADR right above H4 C‑dem. All the more rea­son to feel con­fi­dent to go long. How­ev­er there was a poor low on the pro­file and it is in my expe­ri­ence that it gets tak­en out more than not. So even though price action aligned with loca­tion I had hoped for a buy­ing tail on the pro­file as well. Any­thing bet­ter than a poor low. Thus I hes­i­tat­ed. Recen­tered myself with the fact that it is okay to let a trade go if I am not con­fi­dent about it (will save me more often than I’d ‘get lucky’ any­way). So that’s what I did. I let the trade go. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

• I felt good. Excit­ed I was stalk­ing a poten­tial trade. Wait­ed to see the align­ment between my hypoth­e­sis and what the mar­ket was giv­ing me. When I lost con­fi­dence (that voice in my head has been right way more times than I’d like to admit at times) I decid­ed to stay out. Noth­ing wrong with that so feel­ing pret­ty good after­wards as well. 

How well did I fol­low my process?

• Trade selec­tion
  • After a M15 Bull Engulf (not on the hour) appeared I was stalk­ing a pull­back to new­ly formed c‑line which would have been my entry (if there was no poor low)
• Trade Siz­ing & SL placement
  • SL place­ment and thus siz­ing would have been great as this par­tic­u­lar trade reached 1.5R at the time of writing. 
• Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt
  • First off. Great of me to not chase the mar­ket out of FOMO. Stick to my guns and observe. Tak­en notes for next time. This is part of build­ing my con­fi­dence in my abil­i­ties to read order flow and mar­ket mechanics. 

How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

• I did well here. Got a lit­tle excit­ed before­hand and then felt fine not tak­ing the trade and lis­ten to my voice of reason/experience.

What did I learn today?

• When there is a Poor Low formed on the pro­file it doesn’t mean it will get tak­en out dur­ing the ses­sion. Although in my expe­ri­ence this has been the case more than it has not been. Thus even with price action align­ing with a failed auc­tion at a large imbal­ance loca­tion with near­by H4 demand, I decid­ed to sit this one out. Noth­ing wrong with that. Live and learn for next time. Build your expe­ri­ence. Don’t gamble. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

• Lis­ten to my voice. If there is no ‘clear’ pic­ture then there is no trade. When I say clear I don’t mean the moon and the stars have to align. Rather if the mar­ket behaves with­in the mar­gins that I feel save to trade with­in I will take a trade. The mar­ket almost nev­er per­fect­ly aligns accord­ing to your plan. Just the trade of the busi­ness my friend. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

• I did well today so noth­ing to point out. Even though a trade pre­sent­ed itself I felt more con­fi­dent observ­ing the cir­cum­stances as I hadn’t observed it quite like this before. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

• I did well here

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 01062021

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 01062021

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