Gold XAUUSD — Week 29 Trading Plan

#day­trade #day­trad­ing #forex #trade­plan #trad­ing­plan #trad­ing­forex #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #Gold #XAUUSD 

This is my week­ly out­look on Gold (XAUUSD). Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and mar­ket pro­file. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bullish

• Price above last month’s bar but in the mid­dle of retrac­ing devel­op­ing bar (still have 3 weeks in the month left) after mak­ing a HH exceed­ing Octo­ber 2012’s high
• Price still with­in MN sup­ply and with­in MN1/ Q1 QHi

Week­ly — Bullish

• New Demand formed at MN1 QHi with con­ter­mi­nous W1-C‑D 1729.488
• Price extend­ing high­er with no sup­ply over­head until that of last Sep­tem­ber 2011 with con­ter­mi­nous W1-C‑S 1855.184
• Price still above UKC and VWAP

Dai­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• New Dai­ly demand formed with D1-C‑D 1764.081
• Sup­ply formed with D1-C‑S 1803.298 through inside bar and con­se­quent push slight­ly lower
• Price above VWAP and UKC

H4 — Neutral

• Sup­ply formed with H4-C‑S 1808.468 with a move away to pre­vi­ous H4-C‑D 1794.574
• Fol­lowed by a big bull engulf test­ing the sup­ply (and H4 QHi) with con­se­quent push back down
•  Under­ly­ing demand has been test­ed 3 times now

Mar­ket Pro­file — Neutral

• Pro­file start­ed bracketing

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Neu­tral to Slight­ly Bullish

• Larg­er time frames still very much bull­ish due to pre­vi­ous sup­ply ZOIs being tak­en out how­ev­er medi­um time frames indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble shift in dis­tri­b­u­tion or per­haps a redis­tri­b­u­tion. Need more con­fir­ma­tion on pro­file before increas­ing sen­ti­ment on a gen­er­al direction.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1855.184
• H4-C‑S 1808.468
• D1-C‑S 1803.298

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1794.574
• D1-C‑D 1764.081
• W1-C‑D 1729.488
• D1-C‑D 1727.231

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • Cor­rect posi­tion sizing
  • Trades pri­or­i­ty: 1) let mar­ket pro­file guide 2) M30 con­fir­ma­tion (watch out for ‘Bil­ly No Mates’)
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • Only take 2 trades a day but only have 1 active trade on between the assets
  • Only trade off M30 candles
  • Trad­ing Priority
    • FX pair out­side value
    • FX pair inside > Gold
    • 2+R prof­it dur­ing LN con­sid­er trad­ing PNYC
  • After 4 los­ing trades reduce TP to 1.5R but after 1R can con­sid­er tak­ing profits
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING