Gold 2022 Week 3 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on GOLD. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bearish

• Last month closed as a Bull Engulf / RBR giv­ing MN-C‑D 1780.536
• Price did not close with­in MN-C‑S 1848.366 and did not break the range high of the pre­vi­ous month
• MN QHi reject­ed and price trad­ing mid swing
• Price is trad­ing above last month’s body after hav­ing react­ed off MN-C‑D 1780.536

Week­ly — Neutral

• W1 QHi Rejected
• W1 Bull­ish Inside Bar fol­low­ing a Bear Engulf (clos­ing with­in sup­ply) trad­ing mid swing

Dai­ly — Bearish

• Weak D1 Three Inside Down just before almost tak­ing out D1 supply
• D1 QLo reject­ed and price is trad­ing mid swing

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Bearish

• MN has made a HH and is cur­rent­ly trad­ing above last month’s body although price is com­ing from a QHi rejec­tion and there is still a lot of con­ges­tion in the way.
• W1 QHi reject­ed and even though price formed a Bear Engulf there was no fol­low-through, instead a bull­ish inside bar that closed with­in sup­ply. There could be a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move but price would need to take out sup­ply first for con­fir­ma­tion. Oth­er­wise price might still be range bound.
• There was a con­sol­i­da­tion with longer buy­ing wicks just below almost tak­ing out sup­ply fol­lowed by no fol­low-through. Even though price broke down it’s some­what of a weak pat­tern. In lack of any bull­ish signs (yet) the bear­ish sen­ti­ment prevails. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Gold sta­tis­ti­cal­ly ends high­er in Decem­ber / January
• Watch out for tighter ranges

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 15 trades by the end of the month, can take 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R target
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Process
  • Keep trade review com­ments short
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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