Gold 2021 Week 44 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on GOLD. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bearish

• Mul­ti­ple MN QHi rejections
• Price retraced to MN-C‑S 1813.621 (MN Evening Star) and closed as an Inside Bar with longer sell­ing wick
• Price trad­ing at MN VWAP in UT

Week­ly — Bullish

• W1 QLo reject­ed with no arrival at W1 QHi (yet)
• Last week closed as a Neu­tral Inside Bar after price moved high­er from recent­ly formed W1-C‑D 1764.198

Dai­ly — Bearish

• D1 Bear Engulf at D1 200MA and D1 QHi giv­ing D1-C‑S 1793.804 fol­lowed by anoth­er reaction
• Price failed to con­tin­ue and closed as a Bull­ish Inside Bar below D1 Supply

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Bearish

• Price retrac­ing to MN evening Star C‑sup isn’t the best bear­ish sign but price did close with a longer sell­ing wick as an Inside Bar.
• No W1 PA rever­sal (yet) although price is trad­ing at and react­ed off W1 sup­ply (that was test­ed mul­ti­ple times)
• Rail­road rejec­tion of D1 QHi but with no fol­low-through (yet) instead a Bull­ish Inside Bar. Unless price fails to close high­er with­in D1 Sup­ply (or bet­ter take it out) the bear­ish sen­ti­ment prevails.

Addi­tion­al notes

• Nov 04, 02:00, USD, Fed Inter­est Rate Decision
• Nov 05, 20:30, USD, Non Farm Pay­rolls (Oct)

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• MN-C‑S 1813.621
• W1-C‑S 1807.771
• D1-C‑S 1793.804

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1764.198
• MN-C‑D 1739.073

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
• Week­ly Goal
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R tar­get, lat­est cut-off 1:30 Lon­don time
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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