Gold 2021 Week 39 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on GOLD. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bearish

• Price formed a Bear Engulf (although to me it is more of a con­sol­i­da­tion) back in June reject­ing MN QHi with no fol­low-through. Instead price has been trad­ing with­in the sup­ply (MN-C‑S 1768.539) it had formed with last month clos­ing as a Drag­on­Fly Doji react­ing off MN-D‑C 1739.674 (coin­cid­ing with MN VWAP in UT TC). To which price is cur­rent­ly trad­ing below test­ing MN-C‑D 1739.674.

Week­ly — Bearish

• W1 Bear Engulf with con­tin­u­a­tion down and last week closed as an Invert­ed Ham­mer (long sell­ing wick) trad­ing at W1 QLo

Dai­ly — Bearish

• D1 QHi reject­ed with no arrival at D1 QLo (yet)
• D1 Three Out­side Down with a poten­tial based formed through an Inside Bar

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Bearish

• MN is trad­ing with­in last month’s range test­ing MN demand for a 3rd time com­ing from a MN QHi rejection
• W1 con­tin­u­a­tion down with no close with­in W1-C‑D 1729.691 (yet). W1 QLo was reject­ed but com­ing from MN QHi, W1 QLo is more prob­a­ble to get tak­en out
• D1 is trad­ing mid swing above W1 demand

Addi­tion­al notes

• Sep 26, 08:00, EUR, Fed­er­al Election
• Sep 28, 20:00, EUR, ECB Pres­i­dent Lagarde Speech
• Sep 28, 22:00, USD, Fed Chair Pow­ell Testimony

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1807.592
• D1-C‑S 1794.187
• MN-C‑S 1768.539

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• MN-D‑C 1739.674
• W1-C‑D 1729.691

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
• Week­ly Goal
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R tar­get, lat­est cut-off 1:30 Lon­don time
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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