Gold 2021 Week 38 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on GOLD. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bearish

• Price formed a Bear Engulf (although to me it is more of a con­sol­i­da­tion) back in June reject­ing MN QHi with no fol­low-through. Instead price has been trad­ing with­in the sup­ply (MN-C‑S 1768.539) it had formed with last month clos­ing as a Drag­on­Fly Doji react­ing off MN-D‑C 1739.674 (coin­cid­ing with MN VWAP in UT TC). To which price is cur­rent­ly trad­ing below as well as just duck­ing below MN sup­ply (coin­cid­ing with MN VWAP in UT)

Week­ly — Bearish

• W1 QHi reject­ed fol­lowed by W1 Bear Engulf with con­tin­u­a­tion arriv­ing at W1 QLo

Dai­ly — Bearish

• D1 Three Inside Down reject­ing D1 QHi with price cur­rent­ly trad­ing mid-swing
• D1 Morn­ing Star formed giv­ing D1-C‑D 1754.268 below D1 LKC above MN-C‑D 1739.674

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Bearish

• MN price is trad­ing below MN sup­ply and reached MN-C‑D 1739.674 (coin­cid­ing with MN VWAP in UT).
• W1 failed to take out W1 sup­ply and con­tin­ued down trad­ing still above W1 QLo, MN and W1 demand
• D1 react­ed slight­ly after reach­ing MN demand through a Morn­ing Star. If price fails to close low­er there might be a slight pull­back first before con­tin­u­ing down

Addi­tion­al notes

• Sep 23, 02:00, USD, Fed Inter­est Rate Decision

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1807.592
• D1-C‑S 1794.187
• MN-C‑S 1768.539

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1754.268
• MN-D‑C 1739.674

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
• Week­ly Goal
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R tar­get, lat­est cut-off 1:30 Lon­don time
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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