Gold 2021 Week 31 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on GOLD. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bearish

• MN QHi reject­ed mul­ti­ple times
• Last month closed with­in MN con­sol­i­da­tion although closed below 50% mark
• Price still trad­ing above MN-C‑D 1741.655 that was cre­at­ed at MN VWAP in UT

Week­ly — Neutral

• W1 QHi reject­ed with no arrival at QLo although some demand was formed right above it and price con­tin­ued high­er slight­ly before consolidating.
• Last week closed as a weak Bull Engulf 

Dai­ly — Bearish

• D1 Three Out­side Up giv­ing D1-C‑D 1800.832 just above D1 QLo with a con­tin­u­a­tion high­er to D1-C‑S 1826.301 react­ing through a Bear­ish Inside Bar
• D1 QLo was rejected

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Bearish

• MN QHi reject­ed mul­ti­ple times although no break from MN con­sol­i­da­tion yet. Last month could pos­si­bly be a base to set up for that break from range although more MN demand (coin­cid­ing with MN VWAP in UT) below it as well. 
• Even though W1 QHi got reject­ed through a big move there was no con­tin­u­a­tion, instead a pull­back to mid swing fol­lowed by a con­sol­i­da­tion. Price would need to break this con­sol­i­da­tion range to fur­ther con­firm a direction. 
• D1 QLo was reject­ed but price failed to take out the sup­ply which is mid swing and instead saw a big reac­tion. So unless that gets tak­en out the sen­ti­ment is in line with larg­er time­frame sen­ti­ment and D1 QLo could get tak­en out. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Aug 06, 20:30, USD, Non­farm Payrolls

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1888.863
• D1-C‑S 1826.301

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1800.832
• W1-C‑D 1781.434
• D1-C‑D 1769.224

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Week­ly Focus Points
    • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
    • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
    • No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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