Gold 2021 Week 31 Trading Plan

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This is my weekly outlook on GOLD. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Monthly – Bearish

• MN QHi rejected multiple times
• Last month closed within MN consolidation although closed below 50% mark
• Price still trading above MN-C-D 1741.655 that was created at MN VWAP in UT

Weekly – Neutral

• W1 QHi rejected with no arrival at QLo although some demand was formed right above it and price continued higher slightly before consolidating.
• Last week closed as a weak Bull Engulf 

Daily – Bearish

• D1 Three Outside Up giving D1-C-D 1800.832 just above D1 QLo with a continuation higher to D1-C-S 1826.301 reacting through a Bearish Inside Bar
• D1 QLo was rejected

Sentiment summary – Bearish

• MN QHi rejected multiple times although no break from MN consolidation yet. Last month could possibly be a base to set up for that break from range although more MN demand (coinciding with MN VWAP in UT) below it as well. 
• Even though W1 QHi got rejected through a big move there was no continuation, instead a pullback to mid swing followed by a consolidation. Price would need to break this consolidation range to further confirm a direction. 
• D1 QLo was rejected but price failed to take out the supply which is mid swing and instead saw a big reaction. So unless that gets taken out the sentiment is in line with larger timeframe sentiment and D1 QLo could get taken out. 

Additional notes

• Aug 06, 20:30, USD, Nonfarm Payrolls

ZOIs for Possible Shorts

• W1-C-S 1888.863
• D1-C-S 1826.301

ZOIs for Possible Long

• D1-C-D 1800.832
• W1-C-D 1781.434
• D1-C-D 1769.224

Focus Points for trading development

• Monthly Goals
  • No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Weekly Goal
  • Weekly Focus Points
    • Min. 3 times working out at home + mandatory cardio
  • Trading rules
    • Focus on taking ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be taken on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium initiative activity day.
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Buffer trades (profit target >1R) are allowed and encouraged
    • Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
    • No social media / messenger apps / phone calls allowed during the trading window
• Risk Management
  • Without forcing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if possible 2. 
  • Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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