Gold 2021 Week 29 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on GOLD. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bearish

• June closed retrac­ing all of May not with­in demand formed in April
• Trad­ing above MN VWAP in UT
• Price reject­ed MN QHi although closed as a con­sol­i­da­tion last month
• Price cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in last month’s body

Week­ly — Slight­ly Bullish

• Price closed high­er although as a Neu­tral spin­ning top
• Price reject­ed W1 QHi and has not arrived at QLo, instead react­ed off W1 LKC in UT and made an Inside Bar and price trad­ing high­er giv­ing W1-C‑D 1781.434

Dai­ly — Bearish

• Price acti­vat­ed D1 swing by retrac­ing more than 50% from swing low and is cur­rent­ly trad­ing mid swing
• Some con­sol­i­da­tion and break high­er giv­ing D1-C‑D 1807.590 fol­lowed by a Bear Engulf (exceed­ing 1.25x ADR) at D1 200MA giv­ing D1-C‑S 1826.301

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Bearish

• MN QHi has been reject­ed so longer term bear­ish sen­ti­ment is still in play
• W1 has trad­ed high­er after not hav­ing reached QLo
• D1 cre­at­ed a bear engulf although exceed­ed ADR so there might be some short term buy­ing pres­sure in line with a pos­si­ble D1 2nd Chance Entry play test­ing D1-C‑S 1826.301

Addi­tion­al notes

• Jul 19, 18:00, GBP, BoE’s Haskel speech
• Jul 22, 19:45, EUR, ECB Inter­est Rate Decision
• Jul 22, 20:30, EUR, ECB Mon­e­tary Pol­i­cy State­ment and Press Conference
• Jul 22, 20:30, USD, Ini­tial Job­less Claims

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1888.863
• D1-C‑S 1826.301

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1807.590
• W1-C‑D 1781.434
• D1-C‑D 1769.224

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Week­ly Focus Points
    • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
    • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
    • No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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