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This is my weekly outlook on GOLD. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly — Bearish
- June closed retracing all of May not within demand formed in April
- Trading above MN VWAP in UT
- Price rejected MN QHi although closed as a consolidation last month
- Price currently trading within last month’s body
Weekly — Bullish
- Price traded higher after the bullish Hammer took out W1 demand closing above last week’s range
- W1 QHi was rejected and the bullish hammer came near QLo but did not touch it
Daily — Bullish
- D1 phase 2 trading at D1 VWAP in DT forming a RBR although price slowed down and Friday closed somewhat weak.
- Price did not arrive at D1 QLo after QHi rejection.
Sentiment summary — Bullish
- Even though MN QHi was rejected last month closed as a consolidation. With price trading at the bottom of the range there could be buying pressure coming in short term. Longer term is bearish. Selling rallies should be the primary focus still.
- W1 closed higher and might retest QHi before reversing (in line with possible MN consolidation)
- D1 reached D1 VWAP in DT and price slowed down but did close higher. No reversal yet. In case of a Bear Engulf there could be the shift in sentiment aligned with MN narrative.
Additional notes
- Jul 11, 20:10, EUR, ECB’s President Lagarde speech
- Jul 15, 00:00, USD, Fed’s Chair Powell testifies
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- W1-C‑S 1888.863
ZOIs for Possible Long
- D1-C‑D 1769.224
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
- Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
- Weekly Goal
- Weekly Focus Points
- Min. 3 times working out at home + mandatory cardio
- Trading rules
- Focus on taking ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be taken on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium initiative activity day.
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Buffer trades (profit target >1R) are allowed and encouraged
- Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
- No social media / messenger apps / phone calls allowed during the trading window
- Weekly Focus Points
- Risk Management
- Without forcing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if possible 2.
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING