GBPNZD Week 47 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on the Forex pair GBPNZD. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and mar­ket pro­file. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• Octo­ber closed as an inside bar test­ing MN-C‑S 1.97316 (cre­at­ed through a Bear Engulf with long buy­ing wick) cur­rent­ly trad­ing below it.

Week­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• Some fol­low-through on the W1 Bear Engulf (@ VWAP) last week clos­ing low­er after retest of W1-C-S1.95342 (Exact­ly on VWAP). Arrival at W1-C-D1.92065 proved reac­tive leav­ing a longer buy­ing wick behind.
• 2nd time around test­ing under­ly­ing demand that was formed in July

Dai­ly — Slight­ly Bullish

• D1 Three Inside Up at D1-C‑D 1.91298 return­ing to D1-C‑S 1.92947 (clos­ing above D1 QLo) with some reaction.

H4 — Slight­ly Bearish

• H4 Three Out­side Down formed at D1-C‑S 1.92947 after clos­ing above D1 QLo but no fol­low-through yet. Pos­si­ble Base forming. 

Mar­ket Pro­file — Balancing

• Pro­file return­ing back into over­all brack­et­ing range

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Slight­ly Bear­ish to Neutral

• D1 show­ing a clear reac­tion to W1 demand that has been there since July but failed to close well with­in over­head sup­ply (for now). The pre­vi­ous W1 con­sol­i­da­tion and break down test­ing the under­ly­ing demand could sug­gest more down­side. With the US elec­tions and the mar­kets repo­si­tion­ing them­selves we could see more bal­anc­ing on medi­um time­frames before set­tling on a clear course. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Tues­day
  • BOE Gov Bai­ley Speaks
• Thurs­day & Friday
  • ECB Pres­i­dent Lagarde Speaks

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• MN-C‑S 1.97316
• W1-C‑S 1.95342
• D1-C‑S 1.92947
• H4-C‑S 1.92739

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1.92065
• H4-C‑D 1.91432
• D1-C‑D 1.91298

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
• Insta­gram