GBPNZD Week 41 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on the Forex pair GBPNZD. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and mar­ket pro­file. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• Sep­tem­ber closed as Bear Engulf but with a long buy­ing wick and sup­ply and demand share the same con­ter­mi­nous line at 1.97330

Week­ly — Neutral

• Range bound with test­ing twice below LKC at 200MA
• W1-C‑D 1.91922 cre­at­ed through a big bull engulf (nor­mal for­ma­tion) with no direct fol­low-through since last week trad­ed as a doji (at VWAP in DT) with slight­ly longer sell­ing wick but clos­ing slight­ly high­er than open
• Price trad­ing with­in W1 QLo (doji tried break­ing out but closed with­in QLo)
• Pos­si­ble Phase 2 if there is a fol­low-through on Mon­day oth­er­wise a poten­tial phase 1

Dai­ly — Neutral

• D1-C‑S 1.95030 cre­at­ed through big inside bar fol­lowed by a messy push below supply
• VWAP in DT, break out from VWAP on 24th, messy pull­back to VWAP at D1 QLo form­ing new demand D1-C‑D 1.94743 through inside bar (VWAP CAS) although can be con­sid­ered as less sig­nif­i­cant due to being with­in a dis­tri­b­u­tion curve
• Poten­tial Phase 3 or per­haps a redis­tri­b­u­tion and phase 1

H4 — Neu­tral to Slight­ly Bearish

• H4-C‑S 1.95583 at H4 QHi and H4-C‑S 1.6265 with­in QHi
• Messy con­sol­i­da­tion at H4-C‑D 1.93724 with con­se­quent push high­er and then no fol­low-through. Instead cre­at­ing some sup­ply at D1-C‑S 1.95030 through an evening star, but again no real fol­low-through on that either. Instead slight con­tin­u­a­tion down of messy price action 
• Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 3

Mar­ket Pro­file — Bal­anced Market

• 4 days brack­et­ing of which the 3rd (Thurs­day) cre­at­ed a large VA fol­lowed by Fri­day trad­ing with­in value

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Neutral

• Due to W1 is show­ing a poten­tial for either a con­tin­u­a­tion of phase 2 or per­haps a rever­sal, the time frames below show what can be described as a poten­tial phase 3 or 1. We would need to see a break from the range to estab­lish a direc­tion. In absence we can con­sid­er the mar­ket to be bal­anc­ing and trade accordingly. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• BOE Gov Bai­ley Speaks on Thursday

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.6265
• H4-C‑S 1.95583
• D1-C‑S 1.95030 Near Round No + high­er in dis­tri­b­u­tion curve
• W1-C‑D 1.91922

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.94743 (less value)
• H4-C‑D 1.93724
• D1-C‑D 1.92284 BASE

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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