GBPNZD Week 4 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on the Forex pair GBPNZD. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow through mar­ket pro­file. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Neu­tral to Slight­ly Bullish

• Decem­ber closed as a long-legged Drag­on­fly Doji (longer buy­ing wick) and clos­ing above MN-C‑D 1.89612
• Cur­rent­ly price is trad­ing above demand after hav­ing gone deep­er into under­ly­ing demand but unsuc­cess­ful to make a LL. We have made a HH to last month though. 

Week­ly — Neu­tral to Slight­ly Bullish

• Price took out sup­ply and leav­ing W1-C‑D 1.90104 behind after cre­at­ing a Bull Engulf on 2nd test of W1-C‑D 1.85877 then no fol­low-through with last week clos­ing as a Grave­stone Doji (longer sell­ing wick) after react­ing off W1 VWAP in DT fail­ing to close above W1 QLo.

Dai­ly — Neu­tral to Slight­ly Bearish

• D1 Arrival at D1 QHi (UKC in DT after VWAP in DT flat­tened and broke up. Pos­si­ble Range). D1 Bear Engulf formed at D1-C‑S 1.90528 with no fol­low-through instead revers­ing at W1-C‑D 1.90104 through a Three Out­side Up (clos­ing right on D1 C‑sup thus no clear close with­in sup­ply) with longer sell­ing wick on the spin­ning top which coin­cid­ed with a retrace­ment to D1-C‑D 1.89777 BASE.

H4 — Neutral

• Pos­si­ble Phase 1 / 3 but prob­a­bly more due to trad­ing in Jan­u­ary being less liquid. 

Mar­ket Pro­file — Balancing

• Almost the whole week the ses­sion ranges were too tight to trade. With Jan­u­ary being the time that insti­tu­tions trade I would expect more of the same. 
•  2 day brack­et­ing range

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Balancing

• Since we took out W1 sup­ply, com­bined with a (for now) incom­plete pat­tern on larg­er time frame as well as no fol­low-through on the D1 Bear Engulf I am slight­ly more bull­ish. Only slight­ly though as we have at least one more week for the pat­terns to com­plete. Fur­ther­more, with lots of con­tra­dic­tions, prob­a­bly due to less liq­uid­i­ty, it could go either way. Thus I will let intra­day price action and pro­file sen­ti­ment guide my deci­sions (if ses­sion ranges allow). I will also take less risk by focus­ing on clean­er setups and aim for 1R prof­its while still aim­ing for 2+R. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Last week of the month
• Jan­u­ary less liq­uid. Only focus on good trades. No risky trades allowed. 

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C-SD 1.90104
• MN-C‑S 1.95004 BASE
• W1-C‑S 1.90104

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• MN-C‑D 1.89612
• D1-C‑D 1.89777 BASE
• D1-C‑D 1.87573

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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