GBPNZD Week 39 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on the Forex pair GBPNZD. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and mar­ket pro­file. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• Trad­ing near MN-C‑D 1.89659
• Still week and half left

Week­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• Closed with longer sell­ing wick with­in orig­i­nat­ing demand (W1-C‑D 1.92067) after a clean arrival but demand has not been tak­en out yet

Dai­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• Clean Arrival at D1-C-D1.91303 fol­lowed by a pos­si­ble tran­si­tion to Phase 1 how­ev­er Fri­day closed low­er with­in demand after hav­ing cre­at­ed a Bear Engulf (D1-C‑S 1.91979) with longer sell­ing wick clos­ing with­in D1 QLo

H4 — Slight­ly Bearish

• Price trad­ing below the range after try­ing to break out from H4 QLo
• H4 Bull Engulf formed with no fol­low-through trad­ing with­in demand

Mar­ket Pro­file — Neu­tral to Slight­ly Bearish

• Mul­ti-day brack­et­ing with Friday’s VA below 

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Neu­tral to Slight­ly Bearish

• Due to price fail­ing to stay above H4 VWAP in DT and cur­rent­ly trad­ing below the recent range I am more inclined to go with a bear­ish sen­ti­ment for the moment. Although messy price action on D1 could be an indi­ca­tion we are near­ing the end of the move down so will need to gauge intra­day sen­ti­ment for fur­ther clues. 

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.94667
• H4-C‑S 1.93057
• D1-C‑S 1.91979

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1.92067
• D1-C-D1.91303
• MN-C‑D 1.89659

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day
  • Incor­po­rate pro­file day type
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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