GBPNZD Week 38 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on the Forex pair GBPNZD. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and mar­ket pro­file. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• Almost entire­ly retraced July’s move (thus trad­ing at the low­er range) but we still have over 2 weeks left in the bar

Week­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• Arrived back at the orig­i­nat­ing lev­el from week of July 19th with W1-C‑D 1.92067
• With­in W1 QLo

Dai­ly — Bearish

• Clean arrival at D1-C‑D 1.91303 with­in D1 QLo

H4 — Neutral

• Some con­ges­tion on the way down at W1-C‑D 1.92067 before pro­ceed­ing down to D1-C‑D 1.91303 and end­ing with a Bull Engulf giv­ing H4-C‑D 1.91781 but no fol­low-through yet. Plus price hasn’t closed with­in H4 demand.
• H4-C‑S 1.92480 BASE formed on the way down. 
• Pos­si­ble phase 1 or even tran­si­tion to 2 if there is a fol­low-through react­ing to under­ly­ing demand
• Price trad­ing with­in H4 QLo

Mar­ket Pro­file — Neutral

• Pro­files still in DT. 

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Neu­tral to Slight­ly Bearish

•  We could see some range bound trad­ing due to a pos­si­ble H4 phase 1 or it might be a speed bump on the way down. Anoth­er rea­son for a phase 1 could be the ‘exhaust­ed’ move on Fri­day and the con­se­quent lack of fol­low-through. Could be a sign of cov­er­ing of sell­ing in the mar­ket. A bull­ish sign would be if we would take out H4-C‑S 1.92480 BASE. As always will need to mon­i­tor pro­file to fur­ther gauge the change in sen­ti­ment (if any). 

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.94667
• H4-C‑S 1.92480 BASE

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1.92067
• D1-C‑D 1.91303

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day
  • Incor­po­rate pro­file day type
• Trad­ing Rules
  • If Open out­side of val­ue con­sid­er the place­ment in rela­tion to ADR/ASR
  • FX with­in val­ue > DAX
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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