GBPNZD Week 36 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on the Forex pair GBPNZD. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and mar­ket pro­file. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Neutral

• Only one trad­ing left
• Pos­si­ble base or evening star (would need anoth­er month) form­ing after UKC (in side­ways mar­ket) proved reactive.

Week­ly — Bearish

• Evening star formed at W1 VWAP after W1-C‑S 2.02267 proved reactive
• No sig­nif­i­cant close below VWAP (yet)
• Price returned to W1-C‑D 1.97865 BASE
• Mid W1 swing
• Trend change down

Dai­ly — Bearish

• Phase 3 with exhaust­ed move to W1-C‑S 2.02267 fol­lowed by retrace­ment form­ing D1-C‑S 2.00051
• Phase 3 to 4 tran­si­tion through Bear Engulf break­ing down from phase 3 range (and 200MA) and even­tu­al­ly cross­ing down VWAP in UT reach­ing D1-C‑D 1.97354 (slight­ly reactive)
• Mid D1 swing
• Trend down

H4 — Slight­ly Bearish

• Price below LKC and VWAP DT new sup­ply formed at H4-C‑S 1.98966
• Inside bar formed at W1-C‑D 1.97865 BASE
• Bounced off H4 QLo fail­ure to break out from VWAP
• Trend down

Mar­ket Pro­file — Bearish

• DT

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Bearish

• W1 evening star retrac­ing back to the base of the ral­ly we made ear­li­er indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion on the short side. D1 Phase 3 tran­si­tioned to 4 plus clos­ing below 200MA and VWAP fur­ther increas­es this sentiment. 

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 2.02267
• D1-C‑S 2.00051
• H4-C‑S 1.98966

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1.97865 BASE
• D1-C‑D 1.97354

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day
  • Incor­po­rate pro­file day type
• Trad­ing Rules
  • If Open out­side of val­ue con­sid­er the place­ment in rela­tion to ADR/ASR
  • FX with­in val­ue > DAX
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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