GBPNZD Week 34 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on the Forex pair GBPNZD. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and mar­ket pro­file. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Slight­ly Bullish

• Large inside bar last month after react­ing with MN-C‑D 1.89618 and QLo
• Cur­rent­ly trad­ing above last month’s body indi­cat­ing pos­si­ble tran­si­tion to phase 2 how­ev­er still two weeks left in the month
• Price mid Q1/MN swing

Week­ly — Slight­ly Bullish

• W1 con­sol­i­da­tion with bull engulf fin­ish­er above Mn-C‑D 1.89618 giv­ing W1-C‑D 1.92065
• Clean move away cur­rent­ly trad­ing at W1 VWAP but no break above (yet)
• Phase 2 still in effect
• No sup­ply formed yet
• Price mid W1 swing

Dai­ly — Slight­ly Bullish

• Strong move fol­lowed with a pull­back which ini­tial­ly looked like a pos­si­ble Phase 3, but end­ed with a bull engulf cre­at­ing new demand at D1-C‑D 1.97366
• The phase 1 / 3 range was then bro­ken through a messy break high­er that cre­at­ed demand at D1-C‑D 1.98356. This was then fol­lowed by what looked like more Phase 1 / 3 result­ing in a weak bear engulf fol­lowed by imme­di­ate bull engulf (cre­at­ing demand at D1-C‑D 1.98688) test­ing Sup­ply at 1.99730. On Fri­day this sup­ply was tak­en out with a test above the round num­ber of 2 with close higher
• Pos­si­ble phase 2 in effect again although quite messy still
• Price mid D1 swing

H4 — Slight­ly Bearish

• Mul­ti­ple RBR form­ing new demand at H4-C‑D 1.99557 after which price reached new highs test­ing the round num­ber of 2 towards over­head sup­ply at H4-C‑S 2.01138
• Fol­lowed by a big retrace­ment cre­at­ing sup­ply at H4-C‑S 1.99926 and cur­rent­ly consolidating
• Price mid H4 swing but QHi at 2.028

Mar­ket Pro­file — Slight­ly Bullish

• Even though medi­um time frame price action showed a pos­si­ble phase 3, the pro­files show 2 day brack­et­ing fol­lowed by move high­er after return­ing to val­ue and rotat­ing through find­ing buy­ers in line with high­er time frame phase 2.

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Slight­ly Bull­ish to Neutral

• D1 Phase 2 in effect but due to messi­ness could very well turn into phase 3
• H4 sup­ply is just around the round num­ber of 2 so unless that gets tak­en out a phase 3 becomes more likely
• Large time frames pre­vail where week­ly has shown quite the momen­tum behind the move with­out much retrace­ment although this could be upon us. 
• Price has not reached a medi­um or large time frame swing high which could enhance the bull­ish sen­ti­ment for the moment unless proven oth­er­wise by a phase 3
• In order to have phase 3 ush­ered in we need more brack­et­ing on the pro­file and a pos­si­ble open below val­ue. Until then the high­er time frames still look bullish. 

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 2.01138
• H4-C‑S 1.99926

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.99557
• D1-C‑D 1.98688
• D1-C‑D 1.97366
• W1-C‑D 1.92065
• MN-C‑D 1.89618

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • Align with mar­ket narrative
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING