GBPNZD Week 33 Trading Plan

11 Aug GBPNZD Week 33 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on the Forex pair GBPNZD. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and mar­ket pro­file. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Slight­ly Bullish

• Last month closed as an inside bar retrac­ing ¾ of the pre­ced­ing month cre­at­ing MN-C‑D 1.97273
• Cur­rent­ly price is trad­ing above afore­men­tioned C‑Dem
• 2.5 weeks left in the month

Week­ly — Slight­ly Bullish

• W1-C‑D 1.92082 was formed through some Phase 1 end­ing with Bull Engulf and clear push away
• Price run­ning into con­ges­tion at W1 VWAP coin­cid­ing with D1-C‑S 1.99731
• Last week retraced slight­ly but closed above pre­ced­ing rally
• Cur­rent week has start­ed with a slight­ly HH now trad­ing with­in last week’s body

Dai­ly — Neutral

• Phase 3
• Bull Engulf coin­cid­ing with MN-C‑D 1.97273 (and pre­vi­ous D1 bear engulf) cre­at­ing D1 demand but no fol­low-through on the move
• Price trad­ing side­ways with slight HH

H4 — Slight­ly Bearish

• H4 bull Engulf formed demand at H4-C‑D 1.96568
• Phase 3 to slight­ly move high­er with no fol­low-through cre­at­ing inside bar and DBD cre­at­ing H4-C‑S 1.98323 
• Price run­ning into some con­ges­tion with H4 VWAP, but over­all trend is rolling over into pos­si­ble range

Mar­ket Pro­file — Slight­ly Bearish

• Swings with­in brack­et­ing more pronounced
• Price cur­rent­ly trad­ing below val­ue and range
• ADR 1291
• ASR 1037

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Neu­tral to Slight­ly Bearish

• Due to swings with­in brack­et­ing being more pro­nounced there is a pick­up in volatil­i­ty in line with a poten­tial move after medi­um time frame phase 3 
• For now range is still in effect
• Due to being in the mid­dle of medi­um and larg­er time­frame Q points (and Rang­ing mar­ket) I am more inclined to trade off new­ly formed SD ZOIs in con­junc­tion with val­ue edges and ADR (0.5 or Exhaustion)

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.99731
• H4-C‑S 1.98323

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• MN-C‑D 1.97273
• W1-C‑D 1.92082
• H4-C‑D 1.96568

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • Align with mar­ket narrative
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING