GBPNZD Week 30 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on the Forex pair GBPNZD. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and mar­ket pro­file. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• Month­ly clean arrival at MN-C‑D 1.89696 (with under­ly­ing Q1 QLo) and saw some ini­tial reaction
• Mid swing MN1 Q
• Trad­ing below pre­ced­ing month
• Still 2 weeks left in the bar

Week­ly — Neutral

• No swing high made after a move down from W1 QHi to QLo
• One week closed below W1 QLo the next above but not engulf­ing cre­at­ing sup­ply with W1-C‑S 1.90768 turn­ing into a con­sol­i­da­tion with last week clos­ing above QLo

Dai­ly — Neutral

• Pos­si­ble Phase 1
• Bull Engulf at W1-C‑S 1.90768 cre­at­ing D1-C‑D 1.90736
• Con­sol­i­da­tion at VWAP cre­at­ing Bear Engulf D1-C‑S 1.91972 to W1 QLo but no fol­low-through. Instead con­sol­i­da­tion continues
• Price below LKC

H4 — Slight­ly Bearish

• After a steady climb to H4-C‑S 1.2483 sup­ply a big drop test­ing this sup­ply 2 times (on the sec­ond cre­at­ing new sup­ply H4-C‑S 1.92093.
• Price rang­ing with new sup­plies being made and demand tak­en out
• Unclean arrival at H4-C‑D B.E. 1.91434 (pre­vi­ous swing low rejec­tion of demand at H4 QLo) at D1/W1 QLo 
• End­ing the week with a H4 Bull Engulf cre­at­ing new demand with H4-C‑D B.E. 1.91535 into the pre­vi­ous sup­ply DBD H4-C‑S DBD 1.91649

Mar­ket Pro­file — Neutral

• Mul­ti-day bracketing

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Neutral

• Due to con­sol­i­da­tions on dif­fer­ent time frame there is no stronger bias in sen­ti­ment and would need a break from this range we are in now. Still lots of oppor­tu­ni­ties intra­day though due to new medi­um term SD ZOIs.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1.90768
• H4-C‑S 1.92093
• H4-C‑S 1.2483
• H4-C‑S DBD 1.91649

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• MN-C‑D 1.89696
• D1-C‑D 1.90736
• H4-C‑D B.E. 1.91535

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • Cor­rect posi­tion sizing
  • Have cor­rect SL placement
  • Due to sum­mer time I will focus on trad­ing off new­ly formed SD ZOIs for intra­day plays. Keep­ing in mind that due to lack of liq­uid­i­ty 2nd chance entries can give bet­ter R/R using the M30/M15 rule.
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • Only take 2 trades a day but only have 1 active trade on between the assets
  • Only trade off M30 candles
  • Trad­ing Priority
    • FX pair out­side value
    • FX pair inside > Gold
    • 2+R prof­it dur­ing LN con­sid­er trad­ing PNYC
  • After 4 los­ing trades reduce TP to 1.5R but after 1R can con­sid­er tak­ing profits
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING