17 Jan GBPNZD Week 3 Trading Plan
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This is my weekly outlook on the Forex pair GBPNZD. Basically the levels that I will be looking at where it has a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow through market profile. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly — Neutral to Slightly Bullish
- DBD forming a BASE at MN-C‑S 1.95004 BASE in November with somewhat clean arrival at MN-C‑D 1.89612 (although have been tested twice in July and September).
- December closed as a long-legged Dragonfly Doji (longer buying wick) and closing above MN-C‑D 1.89612
- Currently price is trading above demand but still 2 weeks to go
Weekly — Slightly Bullish
- Closed as Bull Engulf within overhead supply giving W1-C-SD 1.90104(sharing W1 C‑sup).
- Possible W1 Phase 1 transition to 2
Daily — Slightly Bullish
- D1 closed as a RBR giving D1-C‑D 1.89777 BASE, price arriving at D1-C‑S 1.90528 (round number)
- Mid D1 swing
H4 — Slightly Bullish to Neutral
- Possible H4 redistribution. Price reacting off H4 VWAP in UT through RBR although price is trading within H4 QHi
- Price tested D1-C‑S 1.90528 3 times
Market Profile — Balancing
- Value created on top of previous value but still within overall range
Sentiment summary — Slightly Bullish to Neutral
- Price arrived at medium higher time frame supply so we might see some reaction off this although medium time frame price action shows we might push higher. As always let price action (taking out or creating new SD zones) with profile sentiment guide trading ideas. Trading long is riskier as price is trading right into overhead medium higher time frame supply although larger time frame sentiment might support such a move. Look for price failure to take out supply and possible value acceptance plays to increase a possible reversal sentiment.
Additional notes
- N.A.
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- W1-C-SD 1.90104
- MN-C‑S 1.95004 BASE
- W1-C‑S 1.90104
ZOIs for Possible Long
- MN-C‑D 1.89612
- D1-C‑D 1.89777 BASE
- D1-C‑D 1.87573
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- Continue tracking my DRC tracking sheet
- Focus on my own progress and less on others
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Trading Rules
- Trade from D and upwards unless a possible momentum trade, value acceptance or otherwise.
- Risk Management
- 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING
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