GBPNZD — Week 29 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on the Forex pair GBPNZD. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and mar­ket pro­file. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• Ini­tial reac­tive move away from MN-C‑D 1.89577
• No touch of Q1 QLo yet
• Pos­si­ble pull­back on last month’s can­dle in progress
• In the mid­dle of MN1 swing

Week­ly — Neutral

• Price below LKC with last week retrac­ing the pre­ced­ing week and retest­ing LKC

Dai­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• Bull Engulf with­in Demand ZOI with con­ter­mi­nous D1-C‑D 1.91306
• Price still below VWAP and has test­ed D1-C‑S 1.92116 mul­ti­ple times

H4 — Bearish

• H4 Phase 1/3 with price trad­ing above VWAP
• Big H4 Bull Engulf with H4-C‑D 1.91925 with imme­di­ate push­back after test­ing H4-C‑S 1.92486 mul­ti­ple times cre­at­ing new sup­ply through an inside bar retrac­ing more than 50% (clos­ing slight­ly below D1-C‑S 1.92116) giv­ing con­ter­mi­nous H4-C‑S 1.92098

Mar­ket Pro­file — Neutral

• Pro­files bracketing

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Slight­ly Bearish

The retrace­ment on the week­ly could poten­tial­ly be the start of a con­sol­i­da­tion near Month­ly lev­els of inter­est. Larg­er time frames still look bear­ish although for the short to medi­um term we could see more bal­anc­ing before con­tin­u­ing or revers­ing. Also need to account for being deep­er into the sum­mer months and liq­uid­i­ty dry­ing up.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑D 1.91306
• D1-C‑S 1.93057
• D1-C-S1.95241
• H4-C‑S 1.92486
• H4-C‑S 1.92098

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• MN-C‑D 1.89577
• D1-C‑D 1.91306
• H4-C‑D 1.91925

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • Cor­rect posi­tion sizing
  • Trades pri­or­i­ty: 1) let mar­ket pro­file guide 2) M30 con­fir­ma­tion (watch out for ‘Bil­ly No Mates’)
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • Only take 2 trades a day but only have 1 active trade on between the assets
  • Only trade off M30 candles
  • Trad­ing Priority
    • FX pair out­side value
    • FX pair inside > Gold
    • 2+R prof­it dur­ing LN con­sid­er trad­ing PNYC
  • After 4 los­ing trades reduce TP to 1.5R but after 1R can con­sid­er tak­ing profits
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING