GBPNZD — Week 26 Trading Plan

This is my week­ly out­look on the Forex pair XAUUSD. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and mar­ket pro­file. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bearish

• Nor­mal for­ma­tion sup­ply at MN-C‑S 2.09084 with a bear engulf giv­ing MN-C‑S 2.05620 NEW and con­se­quent drop. How­ev­er it hasn’t reached MN-C‑D 1.89592 (yet)

Week­ly — Bearish

• Phase 3 fol­lowed by mul­ti­ple DBD move away from W1-C‑S 2.06304 run­ning into some con­ges­tion at LKC and extend­ed from VWAP
• Last week closed down after a doji was formed the week pri­or tak­ing out pre­vi­ous demand. Pre­vi­ous week bar short­er than pre­vi­ous drop.

Dai­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• Price below VWAP and LKC
• Bull Engulf at pre­vi­ous demand con­se­quent­ly tak­en out by bear engulf form­ing new sup­ply D1-C‑S 1.95249 NEW. 
• Move away fol­lowed by con­ges­tion through con­sol­i­da­tion and con­se­quent break down of demand near­ing W1 QLo and demand D1-C‑D 1.91275

H4 — Slight­ly Bearish

• Move away from H4-C‑S 1.94828 broke down from range form­ing new sup­ply H4-C‑S 1.93531 NEW
• New demand formed through inside bar at H4-C‑D 1.92553 NEW but not near D1 QLo yet

Mar­ket Profile

• Last 2 days had wider val­ue areas but still closed lower

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Slight­ly Bearish

• Due to not quite hav­ing reached D1 and W1 QLo as well as demand there might be some more down­side on the short/medium term before we can reassess a pos­si­ble phase 1 and con­se­quent rever­sal or a con­tin­u­a­tion. Poten­tial back­up for this is last week’s bar being short­er indi­cat­ing fad­ing of momen­tum and com­bined with under­ly­ing demand there might be a the­sis for this but will need intraweek analy­sis to back any fur­ther bias in sentiment.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.93531 NEW
• H4-C‑S 1.94828
• D1-C‑S 1.95249 NEW

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.92553 NEW
• D1-C‑D 1.91275
• MN-C‑D 1.89592
• D1-C‑D 1.89178