GBPNZD — Week 25 Trading Plan

This is my week­ly out­look on the Forex pair GBPNZD. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and mar­ket pro­file. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• A nor­mal vari­a­tion sup­ply mov­ing away from MN-C‑S 2.09084 (and Mn1 QHi) with con­se­quent down bar last month con­tin­u­ing into this month how­ev­er it is only mid-June so no fur­ther con­clu­sion can be drawn here
• Price has reached con­ges­tion through VWAP and for now we are test­ing it
• Next demand ZOI would be MN-C‑D 1.89592 just above Q1 QLo

Week­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• Phase 3 into phase 4 with DBD and after fail­ure to reject W1 QLo price con­tin­ued fur­ther down with a clean arrival at W1 demand ZOI with W1-C‑D 1.95330
• Last week doji can­dle with longer sell­ing wick

Dai­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• Price below VWAP and LKC 
• Con­ges­tion before arrival at D1 Demand ZOI with D1-C‑D 1.94402 fol­lowed by a Bull Engulf (D1-C‑D 1.94733 New) and con­se­quent fail­ure to pull through on the move result­ing in a Bear Engulf (D1-C‑S 1.95228 New) clos­ing the week with a move back to Demand ZOI

H4 — Slight­ly Bearish

• Cross over VWAP ear­li­er last week with a move to UKC fol­lowed by DBD cre­at­ing 2 sup­plies at H4-C‑S 1.95943 NEW and H4-C‑S 1.95605 NEW
• Big move end­ing the week cross­ing back down over VWAP to H4 Demand ZOI H4-C‑D 1.94239 how­ev­er end­ing with a Doji (price with­in H4 QLo)

Mar­ket Profile

• Last week’s pro­files show most­ly brack­et­ing and thus bal­anc­ing of the market 

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Slight­ly Bearish

• The Bear Engulf at the end of the week coin­cid­ed with a move to VWAP and price being in a down­trend it would have been a sig­nif­i­cant move if we closed above it but we didn’t
• Price being below VWAP and LKC on the Dai­ly indi­cat­ing the down­trend is still in play but we’d need to see a break of under­ly­ing demand. For now with what could be Phase 1 in progress we could also see a rever­sal around these levels.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.95228 NEW
• H4-C‑S 1.95605 NEW
• H4-C‑S 1.95943 NEW

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.94239
• D1-C‑D 1.94402
• D1-C‑D 1.94733 NEW
• W1-C‑D 1.95330

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Exit rules
  • Option 1: Time-based stop (under spe­cial cir­cum­stances extend by half an hour)
  • Option 2: Tar­get hit (SL 20 pips + spread or x2 TP)
  • NO OPTION 3
    • UNLESS a trade is entered with­in 1 hour or half hour before the hard exit rule option 1
• Entry rules
  • Entry on TPO break of IB
  • Ear­ly entry with price action con­fir­ma­tion at 
    • H4 con­ter­mi­nous
    • Open far from val­ue, antic­i­pat­ing a move back to val­ue using an engulf­ing + sub­se­quent break of TPO
  • Min. X2 R/R
  • Use TPO con­fir­ma­tion or inval­i­da­tion for direc­tion­al deci­sions by look­ing for in con­junc­tion with H4 con­ter­mi­nous lines
    • TPO exten­sion with a sus­tained move (BO from IB)
    • TPO exten­sion with failed auc­tion (return to IB)
    • How this direc­tion of TPO exten­sion relates to Val­ue Area open sentiment
• I will post trades including:
  • Trade loca­tion
  • Price action entry condition
  • What were TPOs doing at the time
  • With screen­shot
• Keep own approach of KC, VWAP as odd enhancers instead of hard trade locations