GBPNZD — Week 24 Trading Plan

This is my week­ly out­look on the Forex pair GBPNZD. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and mar­ket pro­file. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• Bear Engulf at MN Sup­ply ZOI and MN1 QHi with good reac­tive move away
• Price trad­ing at VWAP

Week­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• After weeks of phase 3 there was a bear engulf cre­at­ing sup­ply (C‑2.06230) fol­lowed by DBD and lad­der and price is now trad­ing with­in W1 QLo and last week’s bar closed slight­ly below W1-C‑D 1.96279
• Price extend­ed from VWAP

Dai­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• Down bars all of last week after bounc­ing off VWAP at D1 Sup­ply 1.99742
• Price trad­ed below W1-C‑D 1.96279 run­ning into con­ges­tion with low­er D1-C‑D 1.94454

H4 — Neutral

• Big Bull Engulf (to VWAP and H4 sup­ply, H4-C‑S 1.95355) with the NFP report com­ing out and the con­se­quent move back return­ing to H4-C‑D 1.94537

Mar­ket Profile

• Rel­a­tive close by val­ue areas show momen­tum waning

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Neutral

• Even though larg­er time frames are slight­ly bear­ish, price would need to break the Week­ly sup­ply before a con­tin­u­a­tion. This sup­ply could cre­ate a bounce so will need to observe price action dur­ing the week to improve on this bias. 

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.95355
• H4-C‑D 1.96375
• D1-C‑S 1.99742

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.94803
• H4-C‑D 1.94537
• D1-C‑D 1.94454
• W1-C‑D 1.96279

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Exit rules
  • Option 1: Time-based stop (under spe­cial cir­cum­stances extend by half an hour)
  • Option 2: Tar­get hit (SL 20 pips + spread or x2 TP)
  • NO OPTION 3
    • UNLESS a trade is entered with­in 1 hour or half hour before the hard exit rule option 1
• Entry rules
  • Entry on TPO break of IB
  • Ear­ly entry with price action con­fir­ma­tion at 
    • H4 con­ter­mi­nous
    • Open far from val­ue, antic­i­pat­ing a move back to val­ue using an engulf­ing + sub­se­quent break of TPO
  • Min. X2 R/R
  • Use TPO con­fir­ma­tion or inval­i­da­tion for direc­tion­al deci­sions by look­ing for in con­junc­tion with H4 con­ter­mi­nous lines
    • TPO exten­sion with a sus­tained move (BO from IB)
    • TPO exten­sion with failed auc­tion (return to IB)
    • How this direc­tion of TPO exten­sion relates to Val­ue Area open sentiment
• I will post trades including:
  • Trade loca­tion
  • Price action entry condition
  • What were TPOs doing at the time
  • With screen­shot
• Keep own approach of KC, VWAP as odd enhancers instead of hard trade locations