07 Jun GBPNZD — Week 24 Trading Plan
This is my weekly outlook on the Forex pair GBPNZD. Basically the levels that I will be looking at where it has a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and market profile. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly — Slightly Bearish
- Bear Engulf at MN Supply ZOI and MN1 QHi with good reactive move away
- Price trading at VWAP
Weekly — Slightly Bearish
- After weeks of phase 3 there was a bear engulf creating supply (C‑2.06230) followed by DBD and ladder and price is now trading within W1 QLo and last week’s bar closed slightly below W1-C‑D 1.96279
- Price extended from VWAP
Daily — Slightly Bearish
- Down bars all of last week after bouncing off VWAP at D1 Supply 1.99742
- Price traded below W1-C‑D 1.96279 running into congestion with lower D1-C‑D 1.94454
H4 — Neutral
- Big Bull Engulf (to VWAP and H4 supply, H4-C‑S 1.95355) with the NFP report coming out and the consequent move back returning to H4-C‑D 1.94537
Market Profile
- Relative close by value areas show momentum waning
Sentiment summary — Neutral
- Even though larger time frames are slightly bearish, price would need to break the Weekly supply before a continuation. This supply could create a bounce so will need to observe price action during the week to improve on this bias.
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- H4-C‑S 1.95355
- H4-C‑D 1.96375
- D1-C‑S 1.99742
ZOIs for Possible Long
- H4-C‑D 1.94803
- H4-C‑D 1.94537
- D1-C‑D 1.94454
- W1-C‑D 1.96279
Focus Points for trading development
- Exit rules
- Option 1: Time-based stop (under special circumstances extend by half an hour)
- Option 2: Target hit (SL 20 pips + spread or x2 TP)
- NO OPTION 3
- UNLESS a trade is entered within 1 hour or half hour before the hard exit rule option 1
- Entry rules
- Entry on TPO break of IB
- Early entry with price action confirmation at
- H4 conterminous
- Open far from value, anticipating a move back to value using an engulfing + subsequent break of TPO
- Min. X2 R/R
- Use TPO confirmation or invalidation for directional decisions by looking for in conjunction with H4 conterminous lines
- TPO extension with a sustained move (BO from IB)
- TPO extension with failed auction (return to IB)
- How this direction of TPO extension relates to Value Area open sentiment
- I will post trades including:
- Trade location
- Price action entry condition
- What were TPOs doing at the time
- With screenshot
- Keep own approach of KC, VWAP as odd enhancers instead of hard trade locations
No Comments