GBPNZD Week 22 Trading Plan

01 Jun GBPNZD Week 22 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on GBPNZD. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Slight­ly Bullish

• Price test­ed MN-C‑S 1.97512 5 times and is cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in con­sol­i­dat­ing range
• Last month closed as a Bull­ish Inside Bar but with a sell­ing wick
• Price is trad­ing mid MN swing

Week­ly — Neutral

• After cre­at­ing W1-C‑D 1.92838 price test­ed above sup­ply (W1-C‑S 1.96876) 3 times before last week clos­ing as a Bear­ish Inside Bar but with long buy­ing wick react­ing off W1 demand (coin­cid­ing with W1 VWAP)
• Mid W1 swing

Dai­ly —  Slight­ly Bullish

• Price cre­at­ed a Bull­ish Inside Bar with fol­low-through then cre­at­ed some sup­ply and pro­ceed­ed yes­ter­day test­ing new­ly formed demand after a slight pull­back clos­ing some­what neutral. 
• Price is trad­ing below D1 QHi

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Slight­ly Bullish

• Due to MN clos­ing some­what Bull­ish there is some buy­ing pres­sure. Although price is still with­in its con­sol­i­dat­ing range and would need to close above/below before a clear direc­tion is made on the larg­er timeframe. 
• W1 made a weak bear­ish inside bar due to the long buy­ing wick react­ing off new­ly formed W1 demand leav­ing behind a long buy­ing wick indi­cat­ing buy­ers are still present. Due to the con­tra­dict­ing nature there could be a W1 base form­ing around these lev­els indi­cat­ing pos­si­bil­i­ty for fur­ther balancing.
• D1 cre­at­ed new demand and is cur­rent­ly still trad­ing above it. Unless price clos­es with­in new­ly formed demand the sen­ti­ment is slight­ly bull­ish regard­less of new­ly formed sup­ply and trad­ing below D1 QHi (as price has reject­ed W1 QLO before).

Addi­tion­al notes

• Non­farm Friday

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• MN-C‑S 1.97512
• W1-C‑S 1.96876

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.94889
• W1-C‑D 1.92838

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Aim to have a min­i­mum of ONE TRADE per trad­ing day
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or hit time stop)
    • IF NOT… I will do a Bart Simp­sons exer­cise of 7 days, 50 sen­tences of: “I will trust my trad­ing skills and take my exits accordingly”.
  • M15/M30 com­bi­na­tion at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • At least 1 trade with 1% risk, 2nd trade only if first one worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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