GBPNZD 2021 Week 28 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on GBPNZD. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bullish

• MN Three Inside Up giv­ing MN-C‑D 1.95263 (plus a retrace­ment and test of new­ly formed demand) with last month clos­ing slight­ly above the con­sol­i­da­tion range with­in MN-C‑S 1.97293
• Price trad­ing mid MN swing after a rejec­tion of QHi in January
• Price trad­ed high­er after reject­ing MN-C‑D 1.89782 with price cur­rent­ly above last month’s body but with­in range

Week­ly — Bullish

• W1 Three Inside Up (giv­ing W1-C‑D 1.96800) with longer buy­ing wick react­ing off W1 VWAP in UT clos­ing with­in W1-C‑S 1.97725
• Price trad­ing mid W1 swing after W1 QLo rejection

Dai­ly — Bullish

• D1 RBR formed giv­ing new demand at D1 50MA in UT with price hav­ing arrived at D1-C‑S 1.98839 tak­ing out D1 sup­ply. Fri­day closed as a bull­ish spin­ning top

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Bullish 

• MN is trad­ing above last month’s body but still with­in range
• W1 did not fol­low-through on the Bear Engulf but instead formed a W1 Three Inside Up clos­ing with­in new­ly formed W1 Sup­ply. Sup­ply is still intact and the way to W1 QHi is not clear espe­cial­ly with W1 Sup­ply at the round num­ber 2.0000
• D1 Con­sol­i­dat­ed at 50MA in UT before reject­ing through a Bull Engulf. Although price would still need to take out sup­ply. If it fails there could be a shift in short term sentiment.

Addi­tion­al notes

• Jul 11, 20:10, EUR, ECB’s Pres­i­dent Lagarde speech
• Jul 14, 10:00, NZD, RBNZ Inter­est Rate Decision
• Jul 15, 00:00, USD, Fed’s Chair Pow­ell testifies

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 2.00000
• D1-C‑S 1.98839
• W1-C‑S 1.97725
• MN-C‑S 1.97293

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1.96800
• MN-C‑D 1.95263

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Week­ly Focus Points
    • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
    • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
    • No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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