#Fintwit #DAX #DE30Cash #MarketProfile #Orderflow
This is my weekly outlook on DAX. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly — Bullish
- Weird Inside Bar closing above previous body
- Price failed to close above VWAP
- Price tested and rejected MN QLo, price trading mid swing
- Conjecture: A weird candle close although bullish did not close above VWAP. Price could start selling off again although there was a fairly quick recovery from the test of MN QLo and price is near QHi. Price indeed started selling off and is currently trading below body and range.
Weekly — Bearish
- Price made a LL and closed as a Long-Legged Doji (slightly longer buying wick)
- Price closed above W1 200MA but within W1 QLo within W1 demand
- Conjecture: Technically price could continue and close further down although due to trading at these levels price could form a Morning Star.
Daily — Bullish
- Price already tested D1 Supply Low in Distribution Curve then traded lower
- D1 Bull Engulf reacting off D1-C‑D 12900 (near round number) rejecting D1 QLo giving D1-C‑D 13091.08
- Conjecture: D1 Bull Engulf rejecting D1 QLo indicating a possible shift in sentiment. Price still needs to take out D1 Supply Low in Dist. Curve but that is already tested.
Sentiment summary — Neutral
Additional notes
- Blackswan event
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
- No early exits, either hit SL or target
- Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
- Risk Management
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING