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This is my weekly outlook on DAX. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly — Bearish
- MN-C‑S 14329.95 DBD, if price retraces to newly formed Supply price could see a continuation higher negating the bearish sentiment
- MN QLo tested, price trading mid swing
- Price trading at MN RBR demand (originating level already reached)
Weekly — Bearish
- Price closed down returning to and is trading at W1 Three Outside Up
- W1 QLo rejected
Daily — Bearish
- D1 Bear Engulf at VWAP nearly testing D1 QHi with follow-through closing within D1 demand and D1 QLo
Sentiment summary — Bearish
- MN Price returned to MN Base demand and already returned to the originating level of MN-C‑D 12765.57 coinciding with MN QLo. Trading within a long buying wick could have buyers come in.
- W1 is still closing lower and no reversal (yet) although W1 QLo is rejected and price is trading into W1 demand and could see buyers come in
- D1 Bear Engulf and with follow-through closing within demand could see continuation down unless price can confidently close higher.
Additional notes
- Blackswan event
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
- No early exits, either hit SL or target
- Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
- Risk Management
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING