DAX 2022 Week 17 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on DAX. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bearish

• Last month made a LL but closed as an Inside Bar with very long buy­ing wick react­ing off MN QLo and MN-C‑D 12765.57
• Price trad­ing below last month’s body but with­in range

Week­ly — Bearish

• Price test­ed new­ly formed W1-C‑S 14351.53 and closed down leav­ing a longer sell­ing wick
• Price failed to make a LL
• Price com­ing from W1 QLo rejection

Dai­ly — Bearish

• D1 Three Out­side Down reject­ing D1 QHi clos­ing with­in D1-C‑D 14080.19
• Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 1 / 3
• Price trad­ing around D1 50MA in DT

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Bearish

• MN is pos­si­bly devel­op­ing a MN DBD, although the long buy­ing wick could push price high­er form­ing a con­sol­i­da­tion or even a Morn­ing Star. One week left in the month.
• W1 con­sol­i­da­tion and break down with last week clos­ing low­er although not break­ing the range. Fur­ther­more, W1 QLo got reject­ed through a V‑shaped correction.
• D1 Three Out­side Down clos­ing with­in D1 demand although not clear­ing the range. A retrace­ment to new­ly formed D1 Sup­ply (coin­cid­ing with W1 Sup­ply) could negate the Bear­ish the­sis as momen­tum down could be more probable. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Black­swan event

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or target
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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