DAX 2022 Week 14 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on DAX. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Neutral

• Last month made a LL but closed as an Inside Bar with very long buy­ing wick react­ing off MN QLo and MN-C‑D 12765.57

Week­ly — Bullish

• V‑shaped cor­rec­tion off W1 QLo (reject­ing through W1 Three Inside Up) coin­cid­ing with W1 200MA
• Fol­lowed by con­sol­i­da­tion / speed­bump with last week clos­ing as a Bull Engulf but with long sell­ing wick.

Dai­ly — Neutral

• D1 Three Out­side Down react­ing off D1 QHi giv­ing D1-C‑S 14606.40
• No con­tin­u­a­tion down, instead a slight RBR at D1 VWAP
• Pos­si­ble Phase 1 / 3

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Bullish

• MN saw a big reac­tion from buy­ers but has not formed a price action con­fir­ma­tion of a rever­sal. Although slight­ly more like­ly there could be some sell­ers still as price has tak­en out MN demand.
• W1 has seen a momen­tum cor­rec­tion that slowed down but has not (yet) arrived at W1 QHi after reject­ing QLo. There could be a speed­bump and a con­tin­u­a­tion high­er although the sell­ing wick sug­gests some con­ges­tion needs to be cleared for a full bull­ish narrative.
• D1 formed a sup­ply at D1 QHi but saw no fol­low-through, Price would need to close and prefer­ably take out said sup­ply for a fur­ther bull­ish nar­ra­tive. A break low­er would negate this sentiment.

Addi­tion­al notes

• Black­swan event
• Had a long week­end off
• April 14th, met­als and indices mar­ket closed (not rel­e­vant for this week)

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or target
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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