DAX 2022 Week 13 Trading Plan

27 Mar DAX 2022 Week 13 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on DAX. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bearish

• MN Closed as a MN Three Out­side Down giv­ing MN-D1-C‑S 15533.08 tak­ing out MN demand
• Price reject­ed MN QHi, no arrival at MN QLo (yet)
  • MN-C‑D 12765.57 near MN QLo
• Price fol­low­ing through on momen­tum but is see­ing some reac­tion off MN-C‑D 12765.57 and MN QLo
• Reac­tion sees fol­low-through and price is trad­ing with­in last month’s body

Week­ly — Neutral

• W1 Three Inside Up Reject­ing W1 QLo 
• Fol­lowed by an Inside Bar

Dai­ly — Neutral

• Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 1 / 3
• D1 Bear Engulf formed clos­ing below con­sol­i­da­tion range although no follow-through

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Neutral

• MN broke low­er but start­ed react­ing off MN Demand and QLo but there is no close yet
• W1 Three Inside Up indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble momen­tum cor­rec­tion with no imme­di­ate fol­low-through. Inside Bar could be fol­lowed with a move higher/lower. More infor­ma­tion is needed. 
• D1 reject­ed QLo, trad­ing mid swing, but start­ed con­sol­i­dat­ing at D1 50MA in DT. Price needs to con­fi­dent­ly break range for a direc­tion­al cue.

Addi­tion­al notes

• Black­swan event
• Apr 01, 20:30, USD, Non Farm Pay­rolls (Mar)

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or target
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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