02 Nov DAX 2021 Week 44 Trading Plan
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This is my weekly outlook on DAX. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly — Bullish
- MN Bear Engulf with no continuation. Instead a Bullish Inside Bar closing within newly formed MN Supply
Weekly — Bullish
- W1 Bull Engulf with continuation through RBR giving W1-C‑D 15590.83 BASE
- Price closed slightly below W1-C‑S 15823.56
Daily — Bullish
- Test of D1-C‑D 15499.30 leaving a long buying wick and closing higher giving D1-C‑D 15697.65 just below D1 QHi
- Price proceeded to take out D1 supply and is now trading at W1 Supply
Sentiment summary — Bullish
- MN closing against a Bear Engulf forming a Bullish Inside Bar could be a strong bullish sign although supply has not been taken out (yet) so expect the possibility for sellers to step in.
- W1 Base demand formed. If price retraces to the Base level there might first be a move down to originating level of W1-C‑D 15290.73
- Possible D1 Phase 2 closing within D1 QHi arriving at W1 supply (above D1 UKC in DT). No reaction (yet).
Additional notes
- Nov 02, 18:20, EUR, ECB Elderson Speech
- Nov 03, 17:15, EUR, ECB President Lagarde Speech
- Nov 04, 02:00, USD, Fed Interest Rate Decision
- Nov 05, 15:30, EUR, ECB De Guindos Speech
- Nov 05, 20:30, USD, Non Farm Payrolls (Oct)
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- W1-C‑S 15828.23
- MN-C‑S 15561.74
ZOIs for Possible Long
- W1-C‑D 15590.83 BASE
- D1-C‑D 15499.30
- W1-C‑D 15290.73
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
- Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, preferably 2 a day (not in the same product at the same time)
- No early exits, either hit SL or 2R target
- Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
- Process
- Keep trade review comments short
- Risk Management
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING
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