DAX 2021 Week 40 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on DAX. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bearish

• MN Bear­ish Engulf­ing formed giv­ing MN-C‑D 15555.36

Week­ly — Bearish

• W1 DBD giv­ing new sup­ply through a bear engulf clos­ing with­in W1-C‑D 15397.59

Dai­ly — Neutral

• Price returned to D1-C‑D 15126.29 and test­ed it for the 4th time but failed to close with­in it. Instead a pin­bar was formed clos­ing at D1 200MA in UT and above D1 QLo. 

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Bearish

• MN con­fi­dent­ly closed through a Bear Engulf indi­cat­ing a short-biased sen­ti­ment for the time-being. Although tests of new­ly formed C‑sup should be considered. 
• W1 closed with­in demand but some buy­ers are still around indi­cat­ed by the buy­ing wick. Demand is quite deep as well but has been test­ed mul­ti­ple times. Nonethe­less, upward bias in equi­ties as well as W1 demand here a move high­er should be con­sid­ered here. A move down could have some push back.
• D1 react­ed off demand and still closed bear­ish but above D1 QLo. Nor­mal­ly, a con­tin­u­a­tion could be expect­ed but there’s a pos­si­bil­i­ty for a Morn­ing Star here so need more info first.

Addi­tion­al notes

• Oct 08, 20:30, USD, Non Farm Pay­rolls (Sep)

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• MN-C‑D 15555.36

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 15397.59
• D1-C‑D 15126.29

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
• Week­ly Goal
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • ‘Bust or Tar­get’: No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R target
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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