DAX 2021 Week 39 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on DAX. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bullish

• Last month closed high­er form­ing a Bull Engulf (RBR) giv­ing MN-C‑D 15585.83 hav­ing made an all-time high
• Price retraced last month’s body back to MN-C‑D 15585.83 BASE lev­el and trad­ed deep into demand, almost tak­ing it out, before pulling back. No close yet.

Week­ly — Bullish

• W1 Closed as a Bull­ish Inside Bar (clos­ing above 50% mark) with long buy­ing wick although hav­ing a sell­ing wick as well
• Price closed below VWAP but above W1-C‑D 15394.53

Dai­ly — Bearish

• V‑shaped cor­rec­tion test­ing D1 200MA in UT test­ing D1-C‑S 15696.82 (clean arrival) before form­ing a Bear­ish Inside Bar

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Bullish

• On MN price is react­ing off demand and is cur­rent­ly trad­ing at MN-C‑D 15585.73
• Price test­ed W1 demand and closed above it leav­ing behind a long buy­ing wick, there could be anoth­er test but if there’s no close with­in demand the sen­ti­ment remains unchanged
• D1 closed as a bear­ish inside bar pos­si­bly in a Fri­day prof­it-tak­ing move after the 3‑day up move (and first reac­tion to clean arrival at sup­ply). Nonethe­less price could see a con­tin­u­a­tion down if price can hold lower. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Sep 26, 08:00, EUR, Fed­er­al Election
• Sep 28, 20:00, EUR, ECB Pres­i­dent Lagarde Speech
• Sep 28, 22:00, USD, Fed Chair Pow­ell Testimony

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 15696.82

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• MN-C‑D 15585.83
• W1-C‑D 15394.53
• D1-C‑D 15125.15

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
• Week­ly Goal
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R tar­get, lat­est cut-off 1:30 Lon­don time
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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